ISW experts: Ukraine conducts counteroffensive in four directions

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least four areas of the front on June 9. 

The Russian Defence Ministry (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled limited and localised Ukrainian ground attacks in the Kreminna area, Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukrainian officials stated on June 9 that Ukrainian forces advanced 1.2 kilometres in continued offensive operations near Bakhmut on June 8.

Ukrainian forces continued limited counteroffensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border on June 9, and made tactical gains in the area.

Ukrainian forces also continued ground attacks in Western Zaporizhia Oblast overnight from June 8 to 9 and during the day on June 9, and a Russian source suggested that Ukrainian forces made incremental gains during the attacks.

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar stated on June 9 that losses are expected during combat operations and that “military equipment that cannot be destroyed” has yet to be invented.

Malyar added that Russian sources are heavily amplifying footage of Ukrainian equipment losses for informational effects.

ISW previously assessed that Ukrainian forces appear to have committed only a portion of their available reserves for current counteroffensive operations and that the existing reports of damaged Western-provided equipment are not a definitive measure of current Ukrainian combat power.

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least four areas of the front on June 9, making further gains around Bakhmut and in Western Donetsk.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged on June 9 that the Ukrainian counteroffensive recently began and noted that Ukrainian forces still have offensive potential, a departure from previous Kremlin efforts to downplay Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• Contrarily, much of the Russian information space prematurely claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed after Russian forces damaged more Western-provided Ukrainian military equipment on June 9.
• Ukrainian officials directly acknowledged that Ukrainian forces expect to suffer equipment losses during counteroffensive operations.
• The Russian command structure responsible for areas of southern Ukraine is unclear and likely overlapping.
• Russian forces carried out missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on the night of June 8 to 9.
• Several independent sources reported additional evidence that an internal explosion likely destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam on June 6.
• The White House revealed on June 9 that Iran is helping Russia build a drone manufacturing factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, underscoring the growing military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow despite Western sanctions.
• Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov discussed increasing Russian-Chinese military cooperation with Chinese Central Military Commission (CMC) Joint Staff Department Chief of Staff Liu Zhenli on June 9.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited and localized ground attacks south of Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russia continues to evade international sanctions and has reportedly restored access to key Western microchips and electronics that Russia needs to produce military equipment.
• A Ukrainian report states that Russian authorities may be preparing evacuations from northern Crimea.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on June 9 that Russia will begin deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus in July 2023, and this is not an escalation from Putin’s prior nuclear weapons rhetoric.