ISW: Putin allows Russian MoD to reassert primacy over all its forces in Ukraine

Putin likely recognised that the involuntary reserve call-up could not close the gap between Russian force requirements and available manpower in a timely fashion, however, and so gave the Wagner Group room to expand its recruitment of prisoners and its operations on the frontline until the mobilized personnel could arrive en masse.

"Once the bulk of the 300,000 mobilised reservists had arrived with units in Ukraine Putin began allowing the Russian MoD to reassert its primacy over all Russian forces," Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Putin’s need for the ultranationalist community has changed but has not vanished, the report adds.

Putin may find himself facing another dilemma after another wave or two of reserve call-ups, as the pool of reservists appropriate for front-line fighting is finite.

The spectre of limitless Russian manpower is a myth. Putin has already been forced to make difficult and suboptimal choices to offset the terrible losses his war has inflicted on the Russian military. He will face similarly difficult choices in 2023 if he persists in his determination to use military force to impose military his will on Ukraine and the West. Russia can mobilize more manpower, and Putin will likely do so rather than give up. But the costs to Putin and Russia of the measures he will likely need to take at this point will begin to mount rapidly.

Key inflexions in ongoing military operations on February 26:

Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky stated that Ukrainian forces will be ready for a counteroffensive this upcoming spring and that one of Ukraine’s strategic goals will be to drive a wedge into the Russian front in southern Ukraine between Crimea and the Russian mainland.

Russian President Vladimir Putin falsely stated that the West is trying to break up the Russian Federation and suggested that Western security assistance to Ukraine makes the West a participant in the war. Putin leaned on a longstanding rhetorical line of effort for raising domestic support for the war by falsely claiming that the West is threatening the survival of the Russian people as a unified ethnic group.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that the types of systems that the West provides to Ukraine will determine how far Russian forces need to push threats away from Russia’s borders, likely in support of an ongoing Russian information operation aimed at discouraging the Western provision of specific systems to Ukraine.

US Central Intelligence Director William Burns stated on February 25 that the CIA is confident that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia but has not made a final decision.

Russian forces continued to conduct unsuccessful operations northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, and a prominent Russian military blogger claimed that Russian forces made further advances north of the city.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk City and in western Donetsk Oblast.