Can US diplomacy break Russia-Ukraine stalemate?

Despite widespread skepticism, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war could see a resolution in the near future if the US successfully employs strategic diplomacy. 

In an opinion piece for Foreign Affairs, the author suggests that US President Donald Trump’s administration, given its unique leverage, might be able to broker a settlement despite Russia’s maximalist demands and Ukraine’s resistance to any deal perceived as a surrender.

The war between Russia and Ukraine is entering its fourth year, with no side achieving a decisive victory. For Ukraine, the war has taken an immense toll, leaving its economy and infrastructure shattered and driving millions of its citizens into exile. The article highlights that Ukraine’s military cannot hope to regain all the territory Russia has seized, as the Western-backed efforts have failed to produce significant breakthroughs.

Ukraine’s leaders have also recognised the futility of waiting for a stronger military position, as the continued war only exacerbates the country’s internal crises, including the erosion of democratic norms and mounting corruption scandals.

On the Russian side, while Moscow has seized substantial territory, the war has come at a staggering cost. With over one million dead or wounded, and an economy teetering on the edge of stagnation, Russia is increasingly realizing that it cannot sustain the war indefinitely.

The economic and military strain, coupled with growing domestic dissent, has weakened Russia's position. Despite this, Russia’s leadership remains adamant about achieving maximalist goals—specifically territorial concessions from Ukraine—leaving little room for negotiation, at least on the surface.

However, Foreign Affairs contends that the terms for a potential resolution are already visible, even if both Russia and Ukraine publicly deny them. A ceasefire along the current frontlines, military neutrality for Ukraine, and a freeze on NATO’s eastward expansion could form the core of a final agreement.

These terms would allow both sides to claim victory—Putin could declare success in preventing Ukraine's NATO membership and securing Russia’s influence over the region, while Ukraine could maintain its sovereignty and European aspirations without being forced into an untenable military situation. The challenge lies in crafting an agreement that satisfies both parties, which, according to the article, is only possible through careful, confidential negotiations.

The key to unlocking these negotiations, the article asserts, is the United States. Given its unique diplomatic and psychological leverage over both Moscow and Kyiv, Washington is in the best position to broker a deal.

While traditional tools like sanctions and military support are important, they alone will not bring the conflict to an end. Trump’s ability to engage directly with Putin, offering a path to normalise US-Russia relations, could serve as a crucial incentive for Russia to engage in meaningful negotiations.

The piece points out that Putin’s desire for international legitimacy and the opportunity to recalibrate his relationship with China are significant motivators for a deal, and the US is in the best position to provide this assurance.

Additionally, the article argues that a multilateral approach is necessary. While Russia initially sought to bypass European involvement, preferring direct negotiations with Trump, a more structured diplomatic process will be required. This would involve the creation of expert working groups to address key issues like territorial disputes, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms.

These working groups, led by the US, could bring together Ukraine, Russia, and European partners to negotiate the specifics of a peace agreement. Though Russia may resist engaging directly with Europeans, the US could serve as a mediator, facilitating dialogue between the various parties.

By Sabina Mammadli