ISW sceptical of Wagner's ability to replace UN peacekeepers in Mali

The Malian junta cannot backfill withdrawing UN forces in northern Mali while maintaining pressure elsewhere, which will likely create gaps for al Qaeda–linked militants to exploit in central Mali. 

"Nearly 13,000 UN peacekeepers began leaving Mali in July after the Malian junta pressured the UN Security Council to end the peacekeeping operation," Caliber.Az reports citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the ISW analysts, the UN mission helped protect major population centres in central and northern Mali during the past decade and held together the tenuous 2015 peace agreement between separatist Tuareg rebels and the Malian government.

Malian soldiers and their Kremlin-funded Wagner Group auxiliaries are now competing with al Qaeda’s regional affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) and Tuareg separatist rebels to fill the resulting security vacuum.

Wagner’s 1,000-strong contingent does not have the manpower or capabilities to replace UN forces and is carrying out atrocities that fuel support for JNIM and the rebels.

Malian forces have sharply decreased their rate of operations in central Mali since giving priority to northern Mali, showing they also lack the capacity to backfill UN forces without taking risks elsewhere.