ISW: Syrian opposition forces make major gains in northwestern Syria Hama on the brink

Syrian opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made significant strides in northwestern Syria, advancing through regime defensive lines in the northern Hama countryside on December 3.

The opposition forces swiftly captured several towns previously secured by Syrian government forces just two days prior, including Halfaya, located northwest of Hama city, Caliber.Az reports, citing ISW.

This advance, likely facilitated by crossing the Orontes River and possibly using the Mahrada Dam, also saw the capture of Tayybat al-Imam, Souran, and Maardis as opposition fighters pushed towards Hama city.

In their progress, opposition forces seized Syrian Arab Army (SAA) tanks in at least one of the captured towns, indicating a disordered withdrawal by regime forces. Meanwhile, Russian airstrikes targeted the al-Ghab plain, located 25 kilometres northeast of Hama city, likely aimed at preventing reinforcements from reaching the opposition forces as they continued their southern advance.

As of December 3, opposition forces had moved within five kilometres of Hama city and likely took control of key defensive terrain in the area. Regime forces were reported to have withdrawn from Qomhana, a village just north of Hama city, as well as from Zine al-Abdine Hill, which overlooks the city.

This hill had been a crucial position for the regime’s defences, but it was targeted by drone strikes from opposition forces. The loss of this hill, along with Jabal Kafra—another high ground overlooking Hama city—has left regime forces vulnerable.

However, despite these advances, opposition forces have not yet entered Hama city itself, though drones were reported targeting SAA tanks near the northern entrance.

In response to the growing threat, the Syrian Ministry of Defence announced the dispatch of "large reinforcements" to Hama city on December 3 to counter the expected assault.

The fall of Hama city would mark a significant step for the opposition, allowing them to continue southwards towards Homs City. This would pave the way for further campaigns in the area, with reports from Syrian social media suggesting that pro-regime forces have already begun fortifying positions in Homs City and forcibly conscripting young men into the SAA.

Hama city’s strategic importance extends beyond its proximity to other key locations. It acts as a critical link between Damascus, southern Syria, and regime-held coastal areas, including Tartous and Latakia provinces.

These coastal regions have long been strongholds for President Bashar al-Assad, and the loss of Hama could leave them isolated from the rest of regime-controlled territory. The Russian evacuation of naval assets from Tartous and the reported deployment of additional Russian troops suggest growing concerns over a possible opposition advance towards Hama, threatening Moscow's naval base in the region.

By Aghakazim Guliyev