Japan’s population drops by nearly 800,000 with falls in every prefecture for the first time

Every one of Japan’s 47 prefectures posted a population drop in 2022, while the total number of Japanese people fell by nearly 800,000. The figures released by the Japan’s internal affairs ministry mark two new unwelcome records for a nation sailing into uncharted demographic territory, but on a course many other countries are set to follow.

Japan’s prime minister has called the trend a crisis and vowed to tackle the situation. But national policies have so far failed to dent population decline, though concerted efforts by a sprinkling of small towns have had some effect.

Wednesday’s new data showed deaths hit a record high of more than 1.56 million while there were just 771,000 births in Japan in 2022, the first time the number of newborns has fallen below 800,000 since records began.

Even an all-time high increase in foreign residents of more than 10 per cent, to 2.99 million, couldn’t halt a slide in the total population, which has declined for 14 years in a row to 122.42 million in 2022.

In January, prime minister Fumio Kishida said that addressing the birthrate was “now or never” and warned, “Our nation is on the cusp of whether it can maintain its societal functions.”

Japan’s ageing population is already affecting nearly every aspect of society. More than half of all municipalities are designated as depopulated districts, schools are closing and more than 1.2 million small businesses have owners aged about 70 with no successor.

Programmes on the Broadcast Satellite (BS) channels are geared to an older audience, with the commercials a procession of offerings for funeral services, supplements to relieve aching joints and incontinence pads.

Japan’s underworld has not escaped unscathed either: a majority of yakuza are over 50 and there are now more gangsters in their 70s than in their 20s. Meanwhile, senior porn is a growing niche, populated by a handful of silver stars in their 60s, 70s and even 80s.

On 1 April, the new Children and Families Agency was launched, bringing all related issues, including the birthrate, under one entity. The government has also pledged to double spending on childcare and allowances to 4 per cent of GDP, but childcare and education subsidies implemented in the past have made little impact on the birthrate.

Despite this, approximately 300 small towns have significantly boosted births via a combination of generous payouts and policies to create more child-friendly environments.

Municipalities offering the best deals to new parents almost certainly benefited from migration from other areas by those already planning to have families; although even Nagi in Okayama prefecture – which became something of a poster-child for increasing the number of children born – has seen its birthrate dip slightly in recent years. Japan is far from alone in having fewer babies. The average fertility rate for the OECD group of wealthy nations is 1.66, well below the replacement rate of 2.1 required to maintain population numbers.

Although Japan’s population started to fall before that of other countries – peaking in 2008 – declines in fertility rates have been more precipitous elsewhere, particularly in East Asia.

Nearby Taiwan is just below Japan with 1.24 baby per woman, while neighbouring South Korea has the world’s lowest rate at just 0.78.