Leader of Karabakh separatist remnants visits Paris, attempts to play on contradictions between Türkiye, France Political analysts’ views on Caliber.Az

The Armenian media outlets continue excitedly talking about the "successful" trip of the leader of the Karabakh separatist remnants Arayik Harutyunyan to France.

Of course, Harutyunyan was looking for help from Europeans in Paris to "curb the aggression" of Azerbaijan.

“We understand that Europe has oil and gas interests with Azerbaijan, however, we call for respecting the rights of our people to self-determination and existence and, using the available tools, to prevent the implementation of Azerbaijan's genocidal and expansionist policy. In this sense, it is appropriate to note the attacks not only on Karabakh but also on the Republic of Armenia over the past two years and the occupation of the sovereign territories of the Republic of Armenia,” Harutyunyan said in Paris.

He was also interviewed by Agence France-Presse and visited the editorial office of the France24 channel.

What do we see here? Harutyunyan is trying to squeeze out something not only from Russia, under the control of its "peacekeepers" but also seeks to get support from Western patrons to keep the separatist area on the Azerbaijani territory. France’s position is quite clear. As for France, "Artsakh" would have been declared an independent state for a long time. However, the issue is in the possibilities.

What does Paris have? What tools does it have to contain the "aggression" of Azerbaijan, or rather, its legal right and desire to fully restore its territorial integrity? What does Harutyunyan hope for when making this distant trip? What are the practical results?

Does France have the opportunity to send its troops and bring them through the Lachin road to the Azerbaijani territory? There is no such an opportunity. First of all, Baku will not allow it. Russia, which already has its own peacekeepers in this section of Karabakh and is trying to maintain its influence there, is not interested either.
Of course, Türkiye, which signed the Shusha Declaration, will not allow this either. After signing the declaration, it is entitled to immediately provide Baku with any required military support through all kinds of armed forces upon Baku’s request. This is not a secret for Harutyunyan too. So why did he leave for Paris? What does he hope for?
Well-known foreign experts answered the questions of Caliber.Az.

“Indeed, France is the main patron of Armenia and as a consequence, the current “Nagorno Karabakh” (quotes - Ed.) in Europe due to the big Armenian diaspora there. However, as the West needs Azerbaijan and Türkiye today, as opposed to Russia, the West will not go against these two countries. Armenia feels the differences on the Armenian issue in the West and will use this in its diplomacy,” Professor at the WeltTrends Institute for International Politics (Potsdam, Germany) Alexander Rahr said.

He noted that France is now struggling for geopolitical leadership in the European Union while the Germans, who were previously in one team with Paris, will choose the Weimar Triangle, that is, the Eastern European allies. France does not like this at all, and therefore it is trying to demonstrate its leadership at least in the Caucasus.

“I think that the main message of the leadership of the so-called “NKR” is that it is trying to use the problems that exist within NATO towards Türkiye,” Expert of the “Ukrainian Prism” Foreign Policy Council (Kyiv) Oleksandr Kraev said.

“Let's not forget that, in principle, Türkiye is allowed to do much more because you accuse it of everything. NATO will achieve its goals, and it will not be blamed. This was obvious during the recent war for Karabakh, when Türkiye supported Azerbaijan, and at the same time, NATO, in its official position on the conflict, stated that it stood for a peaceful solution, for negotiations,” the expert noted.

“However, nobody officially stopped Türkiye in NATO. That is, NATO had its own agenda, and it implemented this agenda through Türkiye. We see the same situation when we talk about Türkiye, for example, in Syria. Once, Turkish troops could not destroy but could squeeze out Russian troops from operational positions in northern Syria,” Kraev said.

“No one in NATO publicly supported this. Afterward, Türkiye was allowed to continue trading with Russia in weapons, and it signed a contract with the US to upgrade and repair F-16 aircraft. That is, in fact, Türkiye had a special status in NATO,” the expert noted.

“Amid the Russian invasion in Ukraine, Türkiye is trying to use this special status, becoming irreplaceable for Putin and for NATO countries, because this is the only channel through which NATO can transmit at least some information to the Russian Federation in a non-public way,” Kraev added.

“Therefore, if we look for something logical in Harutyunyan’s trip to Paris, then I would think that most likely this is an attempt to find at least someone in the West, namely in France, who would like to oppose Türkiye on this basis. Efforts are made to stop Türkiye, rather than Azerbaijan or force Türkiye to somehow influence Azerbaijan through political bargaining and manipulation to either stop the supply of weapons to Azerbaijan, stop joint exercises, or put political pressure on Baku,” he said.

“That is, it is rather an attempt to involve France and other NATO countries in certain political bargaining with the Turks. This is the only adequate reason that I could see here,” the Ukrainian political analyst said.