Can Gulf states hold the line against Iran’s growing drone threat?

Gulf countries are strengthening their air defences as renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks expose the limits of even the most advanced protection systems and raise concerns over whether the region can sustain a prolonged confrontation without greater US support.

Air defence systems were activated this week in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan after Iran launched another wave of attacks that it said targeted US military installations in the region.

The strikes followed renewed US bombardment of Iranian positions along the southern coast and around strategic areas including Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Jask and Qeshm island.

The escalation has highlighted a security dilemma for Gulf states. While the presence of US forces makes them potential targets, American military assets have also played a key role in intercepting incoming missiles and drones.

“The Gulf states are in a bind because they’re being targeted due to their relationships with the US, but their relations with the US and the presence of those bases have also meant that many of the attacks have largely been thwarted or their consequences diminished,” Simon Mabon, a professor of international relations at Lancaster University, told Al Jazeera.

Gulf nations have invested billions of dollars in layered air defence systems combining US, European, Israeli and other technologies. Saudi Arabia and the UAE operate advanced US-made THAAD and Patriot systems, while Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman rely on a mixture of Patriot, NASAMS and other short- and medium-range platforms.

However, analysts warn that the growing use of inexpensive Iranian drones presents a major challenge. Iran’s Shahed drones can reportedly be produced for tens of thousands of dollars, while advanced interceptor missiles used to destroy them may cost millions.

“The biggest challenge is capacity, and that’s becoming an increasing concern, particularly the continued use of very expensive interceptor missiles against relatively cheap drones”, Mabon said.

Rather than attempting to overwhelm air defences completely, Iran can pressure Gulf states by forcing them to maintain constant readiness, consume interceptor stocks and strain military resources.

Bader Mousa Al-Saif, an associate fellow with Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme and a professor at Kuwait University, said Gulf states had maintained a strong defensive position through cooperation with Washington and other partners.

Gulf countries, he said, had recorded “some of the highest interception rates seen in recent months”.

“That reflects both their continued investment in security ties with the United States and a broader effort to diversify their defence partnerships,” he added.

Despite improved military capabilities, analysts say Gulf states cannot rely solely on military solutions. They are expanding intelligence sharing, regional defence cooperation and partnerships with countries including Ukraine, South Korea and European nations to reduce dependence on a single security provider.

At the same time, Gulf governments continue to seek diplomatic engagement with Iran, recognising that geography makes long-term confrontation difficult.

“Ultimately, Gulf countries can’t change geography. They have to live and work alongside Iran,” Mabon said.

The central question now is whether the latest escalation represents a temporary exchange of strikes or the beginning of a longer conflict that could test the endurance of Gulf air defences, economies and security partnerships.

By Aghakazim Guliyev