Meloni’s Trump gamble: Can Italy bridge the EU-US divide?

A recent article from Foreign Policy provides an in-depth analysis of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s positioning within the evolving transatlantic relationship, particularly in the context of a potential second Trump presidency. It highlights Meloni’s diplomatic balancing act between aligning with Trump and maintaining stability within the European Union.

A key theme of the article is Meloni’s transformation from a right-wing firebrand into a pragmatic conservative leader. Her shift is evident in her continued support for Western sanctions on Russia and military aid for Ukraine, despite previously being critical of the EU. Additionally, her stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict—supporting Israel’s right to self-defense while advocating a two-state solution—further demonstrates her attempt to be seen as a responsible international actor.

The article underscores Meloni’s efforts to position herself as a “bridge” between Trump’s administration and the EU, given her ideological similarities with the former U.S. president. Trump’s praise of Meloni as a “fantastic woman” who has “taken Europe by storm” suggests that he views her as an ally. However, analysts remain skeptical about her ability to influence Trump’s policies. Daniele Albertazzi of the University of Surrey notes that while Meloni may serve as a communication link, “at the end of the day, what really matters is the way Trump perceives the interests of the United States.”

The analysis also points out the potential risks of Meloni’s approach. Trump’s tariff policies and disputes with the EU could place her in a difficult position, as Italy would struggle to secure exceptions while maintaining EU solidarity. Federico Santi of Eurasia Group suggests that while Meloni may try to negotiate limited concessions, she is unlikely to break from the EU consensus on major issues like Ukraine. Additionally, Italy’s lagging defense spending—well below Trump’s 5% NATO target—remains a vulnerability in the relationship.

The broader context suggests that Meloni’s strategy could backfire if EU-U.S. tensions escalate. As Teresa Coratella from the European Council on Foreign Relations warns, Italy “won’t be able to manage the situation on its own” and must prioritise EU unity over special relationships. While Meloni’s efforts to enhance Italy’s global standing are evident, the article argues that structural realities within the EU and Trump’s America-first policies may ultimately limit her influence.

By Vugar Khalilov