North Korea could have over 400 nuclear weapons by 2040 Analyst warns

North Korea is estimated to currently possess up to 150 nuclear weapons and could increase its stockpile to more than 400 by 2040 as it seeks to enhance its nuclear capabilities, according to an analyst’s assessment heard by Korean media.

Lee Sang-kyu, chief of the nuclear security research division at the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses (KIDA), said the North currently holds between 115 and 131 uranium-based nuclear weapons and 15 to 19 plutonium-based bombs, bringing the total arsenal to roughly 150 warheads.

This estimate is two to three times higher than figures from overseas research institutions, which place North Korea’s nuclear stockpile at about 50 weapons.

Citing advancements in uranium enrichment, Lee projected that North Korea could possess up to 243 nuclear weapons by 2030 and as many as 429 by 2040.

The forecast comes amid North Korea’s ongoing efforts to expand its nuclear capabilities. In a key party meeting in late 2022, leader Kim Jong-un called for an “exponential” increase in the country’s nuclear arsenal. He reiterated this commitment in September 2024, stating that North Korea is steadily pursuing its policy to deter threats from adversaries.

Lee also highlighted the possibility that Russia could provide technological assistance or supply parts and materials for North Korea’s plan to build a 5,000 to 6,000-ton nuclear-powered submarine.

However, Lee noted that it could take over 10 years for North Korea to complete the development of a small reactor capable of powering such a submarine.

In March, Kim Jong-un visited a shipyard to inspect the submarine project, warning that North Korea’s maritime defence capabilities will be fully deployed “in any necessary waters without limitation.” This marked the first official disclosure by the North of its nuclear-powered submarine program.

The nuclear-powered submarine is among the advanced weapons systems that Kim has pledged to develop. Others include spy satellites and solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), reflecting the North’s broader strategy to modernise its military and strengthen deterrence.

By Tamilla Hasanova