Novruz fire: Anti-regime protests still raging in Iran amid soaring inflation Shereshevskiy's analysis

The celebration of Novruz in Iran was heated. On the eve of the holiday, on Chorshamba Suri, Iranians staged a protest night, pelted police and Basij militants with homemade bombs, and chanted anti-government slogans. Then, during the celebration, in some places, women and very young girls joined men in public dances in town squares. This happened for example in the city of Amol, Mazenderan province.

Of course, it is impossible to break the resistance of armed defenders of an unpopular regime by just dancing and singing, but Iranians show their contempt for the country's leadership in this way since in Iran, women are not allowed to wear uncovered heads and public dancing is prohibited.

This is the background against which the inflation figures are discussed. The fact is that the Iranian authorities stopped publishing information about inflation when it reached the 50% mark for the year. The last time the statistics centre released information was about two months ago: then it reported that inflation for the year reached 47.7%.

Interestingly, for the last 5 years, the consumer basket, on which the centre based its estimates, comprised 35.5% rent and utility bills, 26.6% food, and 9.4% transport costs. However, the average Iranian from a family that is not rich or poor, living at or below the poverty line - that's half or even a large majority of the population - uses more than half of their money to buy food. And food prices alone have risen by 71% this year, according to the same official statistics.

The opposition argues that the real figures for Iranian inflation are much higher than those reported by the statistics centre and that the figures for rising costs, which are published, do not reflect the reality in which a huge part of the country's population lives. But even the official statistics have now decided to go silent, most likely under pressure from Iran's political leadership. Not surprisingly, in Iran, according to opinion polls, the majority of the population is opposed to the regime.

For example, a recent poll conducted by the Netherlands Analysis and Measurement Group on Iran (GAMAAN) revealed widespread opposition to the Islamic Republic among Iranians both inside and outside the country. The survey, titled "Iranians' attitudes towards nationwide protests in 2022", was conducted from December 21 to 31, 2022 and its authors received responses from 200,000 participants, of which 157,000 were inside Iran and 42,000 were outside Iran. The results showed that 81% of respondents inside Iran opposed the Islamic Republic, while only 15% supported the regime. Among Iranian respondents abroad, 99% opposed the Islamic Republic. When asked about their preferred form of government, most opponents of the Islamic Republic said they would prefer a presidential republic. The poll also showed that 80% of Iranians at home and 99% abroad support the recent anti-government protests.

The country's leadership succeeded in stemming the wave of protests that rose last September in reaction to the fact that a young girl, Mahsa Amini, was beaten to death by vice police in Tehran for allegedly wearing the hijab improperly. By killing some 500 people, arresting tens of thousands, and executing several prisoners, the authorities have been able to stop the spread of riots and street demonstrations to some extent. But their main problem remains that the regime's legitimacy has been undermined. The country's economy is plunging into the abyss and prices are rising. Young people do not accept the religious ideology of the Islamic Republic (theocracy) and do not want to live by the rules set by the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei. National minorities, mainly Kurds, Baluchis and Azeris (together making up half the population of the country), are outraged by discrimination against their regions, the lack of schools in local languages, the outflow of money from the regions to the capital, and Fars Province.

Mass protests, including violent riots, have long been a hallmark of Iranian society. But most importantly, each new wave rises above the previous ones - 2018, 2019, 2022-2023...

The November 2019 protests were stronger and more radical than the 2018 speeches and covered more than 100 cities across the country. In response to the rise in fuel prices, hundreds of thousands of Iranians rushed to block highways and in some cases attacked authorities.

"The Mahsa Amini protests" of 2022-2023 proved to be both more massive and longer lasting and more radical in form (some Iranians took up arms). They lasted about six months. These protests themselves changed Iran dramatically, for example, many women stopped wearing the hijab. People from all social classes and ethnic groups took part, but the protests mainly targeted young people.

Now the whole question is what the next rise of the social movement will be and when it will start. For example, it could be in the summer due to water and electricity cuts. This is due to additional seasonal difficulties - the poor performance of the outdated electricity grid and the misuse of water resources, causing Iran's rivers to dry up.

The protests in Iran are similar to the "Sepideh Qolian protests". This young woman could eventually become or has already become, a symbol of the movement like Mahsa Amini. She was arrested in 2018, following a successfully organised strike by factory workers across the Khuzestan region.

The labour movement in Iran is usually illegal and is not so much about trade unions (they are often arrested and smashed up), but about informal worker initiatives. Such initiatives usually try to organise strikes through workers' collective or activist meetings, or social media. And some of them advocate a system of workers' councils - self-governing bodies subordinate to the regular workers' assembly that has taken over the enterprises in a general strike.

Sepideh Qolian was released from Tehran's infamous Evin Prison on March 15 and was re-arrested just hours later. The video, which captures the moment she was released from prison, shows her chanting the slogan, "Khamenei - you are Zahhak, let's drive you underground!" It may have been this video, which immediately went viral, that led to the new arrest. The Iranian uprisings look like this - they seem to have been crushed by repression, but then they revive again. It's only a matter of time.

It now depends on when the "Mahsa Amini protests" will be replaced by a new wave - the "Sepideh Qolian protests".