Peace with Azerbaijan only survival formula for Armenia Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The increased shelling by the Armenian army of Azerbaijani positions after the meeting in Brussels speaks volumes: Yerevan has been so inspired by the attention of the EU and the United States that it believes in its own impunity.

Essentially, the Armenian authorities have lost touch with reality and believe that with the support of the West, they have gained muscles to play with, provoking Azerbaijan. Obviously, Armenia's transition under the protectorate of Washington and Brussels, turning it into a Western military outpost in the South Caucasus, will be accompanied by an intensification of Armenian armed provocations along the conditional border. But what will this give Armenia?

What is the situation in the region according to foreign experts? A correspondent for Caliber.Az took on the task of finding out.

According to the German journalist and political expert Eugene Kudryats, Armenia's turn towards the West is quite understandable, especially after Russia ceased to support Yerevan militarily and politically, at least not in the way Yerevan would like.

"But I also understand Azerbaijan's concerns because the West behaves not very objectively towards Baku. And we remember the ugly history in PACE with the Azerbaijani delegation, which was clearly biased and orchestrated. In my opinion, the most important thing for Azerbaijan now is still to try to sign a peace treaty with Armenia, despite all the rhetoric coming from Yerevan.

It seems to me that Azerbaijan should maintain pragmatism and restraint and, despite all the current contradictions and collisions, not break off relations with the European Union but play the long game. Azerbaijan, in this sense, I think, should simply intensify its work in the sphere where it has already shown itself wonderfully - in the multi-vector policy - and, in defiance of all existing games and trends, build up political and economic ties with individual European countries, strengthening its position there. Armenia, on the other hand, would like to remind that everything that is done should comply with international law and the letter of the law," emphasized Kudryats.

Moreover, according to Kazakh political analyst Atbek Aitmatov, no matter what promises are made to Yerevan, it could seriously backfire in its plans to become the main political and military outpost of the West in the South Caucasus.

"Of course, one can only wonder at the dream of the Armenian elite to change the situation in the region in their favour with help from outside, especially with weapons. Yerevan politicians fail to understand that attempting to resolve relations with Azerbaijan through force and pressure will only cost them dearly. Sober-minded military analysts acknowledge that it will take six to seven years for Armenia to even bring its army into alignment with what it was before 2020. If we're talking about bringing the Armenian army up to NATO standards, then the timeframe is immeasurably longer. Azerbaijan has been purposefully training its military abroad for over twenty years, in the best military academies of Turkey and Israel. Does Yerevan seriously believe that it will be able to catch up with Azerbaijan in just a couple of years?" asks the political analyst.

According to Aitmatov, it's not just about military equipment, but also about training highly qualified personnel - that's where Baku has placed a great emphasis for many years, alongside acquiring the most advanced weaponry. Meanwhile, Armenia only beat itself in the chest and relied on the “invincibility” of its army.

"Armenia needs to wake up and start accepting reality as it is. Unfortunately, so far, we see that Yerevan still believes that by selling its sovereignty to the West, it will receive miracle weapons with which it can defeat Azerbaijan. Take off the rose-coloured glasses, tame your ambitions, and finally, start negotiating with Azerbaijan directly, without theatrics, without any intermediaries - Yerevan shouldn’t even dream of anything else. Peace with Azerbaijan is the only survival formula for Armenia now," Aitmatov summarized.