Politico: NATO braces for possible French pullback under next leader

NATO is preparing for the possibility that France’s next president could weaken the alliance as Europe confronts uncertainty over U.S. military commitments and the threat of a potential Russian attack.

Recent polling suggests roughly half of French voters support hardline candidates sceptical of NATO. Far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen has called for France to leave NATO’s integrated military command, while left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has advocated withdrawing from the alliance altogether, according to the latest piece by Politico.

“I fear those elections,” one NATO diplomat said. “Losing France would be dreadful.”

A French withdrawal from NATO’s command structure would have major consequences. France is the European Union’s only nuclear-armed state and currently leads a 1,200-strong NATO battlegroup in Romania. Its departure could also affect deployments in Estonia, intelligence-sharing, satellite capabilities and cooperation on nuclear policy.

France previously withdrew from NATO’s integrated military command in 1966 under President Charles de Gaulle, citing the need for greater national sovereignty. Paris returned to the command structure in 2009 under President Nicolas Sarkozy.

“If it happens again, Paris is unlikely to fully cut ties with the alliance,” said Fabrice Pothier, a former NATO policy official. However, “it would be foolish to think that there would be continuity” under a hard-line president.

Le Pen said in May: “We must leave NATO’s integrated command.” A French official said she had also expressed that position during a private meeting with a senior military commander and argued that France would eventually need to resume contact with Russia.

Mélenchon has gone further, saying in June: “There can be no question of remaining a member of NATO.”

According to NATO polling seen by Politico, 54 per cent of French respondents said they would vote to remain in NATO, the second-lowest figure among the alliance’s 32 members.

A departure from NATO’s command structures would also diminish France’s influence. It could lose senior military positions and access to some intelligence, while NATO would lose access to France’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, amphibious fleet, intelligence satellites and a navy capable of deploying about 65 per cent of its fleet.

“The fact is we have a little of everything,” said retired French Lt. Gen. Michel Yakovleff.

France currently contributes 10 per cent of NATO’s €5.3 billion annual operational budget.

“We’ll survive,” the NATO diplomat said, but “it’s going to be very, very dangerous.”

By Tamilla Hasanova