Politico: Ukraine reworks its weapons wish list

As Ukrainian forces mow through cities once held by Russia, Kyiv is reworking its weapons wish list from Western countries while troops prepare to dig in for bitter winter fighting.

At the top of their list is new air defences, due to fears that Vladimir Putin will step up missile attacks on civilian targets as his front lines collapse, Politico reported on October 5.

“Ukraine has been able to prevent most Russian attacks, but we may expect increased Russian missile attacks against critical Ukrainian infrastructure” in the coming weeks, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former NATO chief, said in an interview.

Rasmussen is meeting with U.S. officials in Washington this week. He’s on a mission from Kyiv, where he worked with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s top adviser, Andriy Yermak, to develop the Kyiv Security Compact. The plan encourages Western powers to commit to long-term security guarantees with Ukraine, including steady material support for the war effort and rebuilding the Ukrainian defence industry so the country can begin to manufacture and provide its own weapons in the coming years.

“We need to deliver all assets that Ukrainians need to protect themselves against those missile attacks from Russia,” he added.

No new air defence capabilities were included in the Biden administration’s $625 million military aid package announced Tuesday, which instead focused on precision artillery and rocket systems and ammunition. Those weapons and munitions will be critical over the next several weeks as Ukrainian forces continue their counter-offensives.

Kyiv is, however, slated to receive two Raytheon-made National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems by November, Defense Department officials have said. The systems can knock down drones, missiles and helicopters — which is just what Ukraine is looking for.

Yet there are worries that those systems, along with six more slated to be contracted and delivered in the future, won’t arrive quickly enough to give Ukraine the air cover it needs.

The first two NASAMS this fall “are not sufficient air defence,” said one Ukrainian adviser who asked to speak anonymously to discuss arms deliveries. “We’re not talking Stingers here. We’re talking about something that has mid-range and higher ranges.”

It will likely take time for those weapons to arrive. Western countries are reluctant to give up their own advanced missile defence capabilities. Plus, contracting, building and training crews on how to operate them takes years.

The Biden administration has been arming Ukraine in a deliberate manner, sending artillery and munitions for the immediate fight, and contracting with the defence industry for weapons such as NASAMS. It’s a two-pronged strategy that officials have said meets Kyiv’s immediate needs while setting up a consistent flow of weaponry in the coming years. The U.S. is also holding quiet talks with Ukraine and the defence industry about whether to eventually acquire capabilities such as Patriot batteries and F-16 fighter planes.

Asked for comment on the Ukrainians’ requests for the winter, a senior Defense Department official pointed out that the U.S. has provided air defence radars for Ukraine along with the two NASAMS. The U.S. also assisted with the transfer of a Slovakian S-300 air defence system in April, after which the U.S., Germany and the Netherlands all deployed their own Patriot batteries to Slovakia to backstop the country’s air defence.

The U.S. and allies have been notoriously short on Patriot air defence systems, and in the U.S. Army, Patriot batteries for years have been the most deployed units, as commanders around the globe clamour for the weapon. Likewise, NATO allies that operate the system have been careful when and where to deploy their own batteries.