Poll reflects growing disillusionment with UK leadership

In the United Kingdom, Labour has plunged to its lowest-ever rating in a YouGov poll, falling to just 17 per cent of the vote in a new and serious setback for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

According to the latest survey, cited by British media, the governing party now trails Reform UK by 10 percentage points and sits only one point ahead of the Greens, marking an unprecedented collapse in support.

The decline follows a disastrous week for Sir Keir, during which Labour suffered a historic defeat in the Caerphilly by-election in Wales and five survivors of grooming gangs withdrew from the national inquiry, further damaging the government’s credibility.

Mounting problems over immigration have added to the turmoil. Public outrage intensified after a migrant deported to France under the government’s “one in, one out” scheme returned to the UK by crossing the Channel in a small boat. Days later, authorities mistakenly released a migrant sex offender from jail.

The offender, identified as Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu, had been staying at the Bell Hotel in Epping and was jailed for sexually assaulting a teenage girl. He was rearrested about 36 hours after his release when members of the public spotted him.

Public concern over immigration has now reached its highest level in a decade. Sir Keir and his ministers have tried to deflect criticism by blaming the former Conservative government for the failings in the asylum and justice systems.

However, the new YouGov data indicates that Labour’s popularity continues to fall sharply, amid growing speculation that the Prime Minister could face a leadership challenge within months.

Under Sir Keir, Labour is polling even lower than the Conservatives did under Rishi Sunak. The Tories’ lowest point before the last general election was 18 per cent, still a point higher than Labour’s current standing.

Reform UK’s 10-point advantage aligns with its consistently strong performance in recent months, though its current 27 per cent share is slightly below its 29 per cent peak with YouGov recorded in May.

Meanwhile, Labour and the Conservatives are now tied for second place at 17 per cent each — the first time the two parties have drawn level since the general election. This represents a dramatic halving of Labour’s support since 2024, when the party captured 34 per cent of the popular vote.

Despite Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s relatively subdued start, the figures suggest Sir Keir has lost far more support than the Conservatives since the national vote.

In another sign of Britain’s increasingly fragmented political landscape, the Greens have surged to a record 16 per cent, placing them fourth. The party, which won less than 7 per cent in the last election, has since doubled its membership under new leader Zack Polanski, who took office last month.

Polanski’s viral social media videos have reached millions, appealing to disillusioned Left-wing voters unhappy with Labour’s handling of the economy, climate policy, and the war in Gaza.

Adding to Labour’s woes, the party lost its century-long grip on Caerphilly in a pivotal Senedd by-election last week. Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru captured 47 per cent of the vote, while Reform UK came second with 36 per cent, leaving Labour with just 11 per cent — a steep drop from 35 per cent four years ago.

The polling points to the likelihood of a Labour wipeout in the upcoming Senedd election in May, which will coincide with local elections and is widely seen as a key test of Sir Keir’s leadership.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has declined to rule out a future challenge for the party leadership, though he is not currently an MP. Several Labour backbenchers have warned that if next May’s results prove as disastrous as expected, Sir Keir will have no choice but to step aside.

By Tamilla Hasanova