Populist rhetoric of guarantee-hunter Pashinyan not working for Baku "Separation for salvation" back on Armenian agenda

Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan marked Army Day with a speech to soldiers. Pashinyan addressed the military strategy of Armenia and the peaceful settlement with Azerbaijan. He took a potshot at his overlord at the beginning of the relevant part of his speech: "We must also have a rethink of our strategic views in the area of security. It is necessary to admit out loud that our ingrained ideas about security systems and formulas of their functioning have played a cruel joke on us, and there is no other way out for the Republic of Armenia but to diversify security relations".

In other words, Pashinyan has once again confirmed that Yerevan will gain new strategic allies. Something tells me it will be France, India and possibly Iran. It is not entirely clear, however, whether the prime minister was also referring to Russian-made weapons when he said the following: "We are moving towards acquiring new and modern weapons and equipment, and in recent years the Government has signed contracts to purchase weapons and ammunition worth several billion dollars." If this is not the case, it would certainly be a great shame for Moscow. The money used to buy weapons is earned by Armenia as a result of deals with Russia to circumvent Western sanctions.

This is indirectly confirmed by Pashinyan's next words, "I must state that the tax revenues of the 2023 budget, which have already been collected, exceeded the revenues of the 2017 budget by approximately $2.5 billion. The reform of the army and armed forces will also be carried out with these funds".

But let us leave the issues of arms contracts and the status of the Zangezur corridor to Moscow and Yerevan and focus on Pashinyan's theses, which directly concern a peaceful settlement with Azerbaijan.

"In the context of ensuring security, I would like to highlight two other key factors: foreign relations and the legitimacy of the policy that is being pursued from the point of view of international law. Legitimacy should be the most important factor in ensuring Armenia's external security. I mean that the Republic of Armenia should identify itself with the territory on which it has been recognised by the international community. This means the territory of the Armenian SSR, identical to the territory of the Republic of Armenia. We must clearly and indisputably state that we do not have and will not have any claims to any other territory, and this must become the strategic basis for ensuring the external security of the Republic of Armenia," the Armenian premier said.

Yes, it all sounds logical and even sincere - the territory of the Republic of Armenia is equal to that of the Armenian SSR, and Armenia has no claim and will have no claim to any other territory. But Pashinyan goes further into the labyrinth of his deviousness, as has become a tradition. Referring to allegedly aggressive statements by Azerbaijan, Pashinyan says the following "I have already said that it is the sovereign right of every country to have a strong and combat-ready army, and no one can question our right. If someone questions this right, they question our right to exist. In this case, we have no choice but to defend our statehood, independence and territorial integrity with all possible and impossible means".

It should be noted that Pashinyan is contradicting himself. Baku knows better than anyone else that a strong, combat-ready army is every country's sovereign right. However, the world has seen cases when this right was restricted for some countries. For example, Germany and Japan after the Second World War. The occupation of Karabakh by Armenia is in line with the crimes of the Axis powers. However, we live in an unjust world, where accents get shifted, and we understand that Armenia's patrons are not going to allow it to be demilitarised. Therefore, we do not question Armenia's right to arm itself. We only say that as soon as this right poses a danger to our country, it becomes our duty to limit it. This is exactly what President Aliyev's words have been about.

That is why we will not go along with populist demands for some kind of guarantee. Pashinyan began to talk about these guarantees again: "We are ready to go this way. Moreover, we have offered Azerbaijan several mechanisms of security guarantees. For example, the reciprocal withdrawal of troops from the administrative border between the Armenian and Azerbaijani SSRs. This border became a state border in accordance with the 1991 Almaty Declaration, and on October 6 in Prague, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to recognise each other's territorial integrity on this basis. The mirror withdrawal of troops will allow all the territories of the Azerbaijani SSR to be under the control of Azerbaijan and all the territories of the Armenian SSR to be under the control of Armenia".

Well, first of all, how can troops be withdrawn from the border if it's still conditional and still not demarcated? Oh, you mean the administrative border between the Armenian SSR and the Azerbaijani SSR according to the Almaty Declaration? But how can we believe Pashinyan when, firstly, the Republic of Armenia legislatively recognises the Almaty Declaration with amendments defining Armenia's claims to Azerbaijan's Karabakh, and secondly, this interpretation of the Declaration was fundamental in Armenia for almost thirty years during the occupation of Karabakh?

Meanwhile, Pashinyan is already unstoppable: "We offered Azerbaijan to implement the demilitarisation of the border, the mechanism of mutual arms control, the signing of a non-aggression pact, if it turns out that signing the peace treaty will take longer than expected". And further: "I once again state that the Republic of Armenia has no claims to any territory other than its sovereign territory, and no one can have claims to any territory of the Republic of Armenia. As I have already said, we are ready to give such guarantees, firm and irreversible guarantees, but we expect similar guarantees from others".

It is worth noting that Yerevan only guarantees to refrain from attacking Azerbaijan. But it says nothing about abandoning the slanderous rhetoric of "ethnic cleansing" in Karabakh. In short, the humanitarian discourse of "separation for salvation" is still on the Armenian agenda. The information background that Yerevan is creating around the Karabakh liberated by Azerbaijan shows that it has not given up its claims to this land at all. Yerevan should take the following measures if it really has no claims on any territory: 1. Stop referring to the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan as territory "controlled by Azerbaijan", "annexed by Azerbaijan" or in any other way questioning the territorial integrity of our country, as well as Armenianised toponyms; 2. Amend its legislation to remove any reference to Karabakh as part of the Republic of Armenia; 3. Stop accusing Azerbaijan of "ethnic cleansing" of Karabakh Armenians and raising the issue of their return on any terms incompatible with Azerbaijan's just conditions.

Unless Yerevan does this elementary work, all its assurances of peace will not be worth the paper they are printed on. The Azerbaijani leadership knows how to negotiate with Armenia. There is no reason to rule out the possibility of some kind of framework agreement, which would contain non-aggression clauses. But we doubt that it will contain the kind of guarantee clauses that Pashinyan is dreaming of.