Reassessment of Turkish-Armenian relations Borders of trust

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently addressed the issue of normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations in an interview with Sabah. "The negotiation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia is ongoing. We need to prepare our scenario for a positive outcome. Work is underway in this direction. If the normalization process concludes positively, we will activate a positive scenario, meaning we might open the border," he said. With this statement, the Turkish Foreign Minister once again put an end to speculations about the possibility of normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations independent of the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement.

It is worth noting that such speculations are periodically circulated in the media by Armenian officials. For instance, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan continually emphasizes Armenia's readiness for "complete normalization of relations with Türkiye, establishing diplomatic relations, and opening the state border."

The topic of Turkish-Armenian relations has a lengthy background. Recall the so-called "football diplomacy" and the Zurich Protocols of 2009 between Armenia and Türkiye, which aimed to start the process of normalizing relations. However, after Azerbaijan's predictable objections, Ankara halted its involvement and chose not to ratify the protocols. This response was entirely understandable given that, fifteen years ago, Azerbaijani territories were under occupation, and Armenia was not considering any possibility of returning those lands.

For Armenia, normalization with Türkiye has always been highly desirable. Achieving this would serve two purposes: it would alleviate Armenia's international isolation and simultaneously show the world that Türkiye was willing to restore relations with regardless of Baku, thereby portraying Azerbaijan as isolated in its pursuit of territorial integrity.

Interestingly, attempts to normalize relations between Türkiye and Armenia were made even in the late 1990s, shortly after the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas. For instance, in 1997, then-Armenian Foreign Minister Alexander Arzumanyan, during a visit to Washington and a meeting with US Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, sought American assistance to open the Armenian-Turkish border. He expressed concerns that regional transportation projects might bypass Armenia. However, Türkiye, a close ally of Azerbaijan, was not willing to sacrifice Azerbaijan’s interests for normalization with Armenia.

While the situation today is different from what it was ten or twenty years ago—given that Azerbaijan has now fully restored its sovereignty and territorial integrity—the fundamental issue remains: Armenia's conceptual stance on Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. As long as the Armenian constitution contains explicit territorial claims against Azerbaijan, a peace treaty will remain elusive. Consequently, normalization between Armenia and Türkiye will also remain unattainable.

It is also worth noting that the Armenian Constitution contains territorial claims against Türkiye as well. The well-known preamble refers to Armenia's Declaration of Independence, which not only includes the well-known clause about "Nagorno-Karabakh" but also features a statement declaring: " The Republic of Armenia stands in support of the task of achieving international recognition of the 1915 Genocide in Ottoman Türkiye and Western Armenia." "Western Armenia," as is known, refers to the extensive territories of Eastern Anatolia.

With some caution, it can be suggested that Ankara is currently avoiding a focus on this issue to prevent escalating tensions within Armenian society. Türkiye may be hoping that Azerbaijan’s demand for amendments to the Armenian Constitution will eventually lead to constitutional reforms in Armenia, even if these changes are presented as necessary for other reasons. If this occurs, the reference to the Declaration of Independence is likely to be removed, and the issue of territorial claims against Türkiye would, at least legally, be resolved.

Therefore, it is plausible that Türkiye, beyond its solidarity with Azerbaijan, has a practical interest in postponing normalization with Armenia until all issues with Azerbaijan are settled. Armenia should be mindful of this strategic consideration.