Rubio to lead US-Europe talks on Ukraine security guarantees

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead diplomatic talks with European allies and Ukraine on security guarantees, highlighting his growing influence in the Trump administration amid delicate negotiations with Russia.

Rubio will face the challenge of convincing European leaders that President Donald Trump will uphold commitments to help defend Ukraine without formally invoking NATO, even as Russian officials insist on a role in any proposed security arrangement, Caliber.Az reports, citing U.S. media.

While Trump recently asserted that Russian President Vladimir Putin had accepted Ukraine’s need for security guarantees, Russia’s foreign minister said on August 20 that Moscow would insist on being included in any such plan, complicating prospects for a peace deal.

A senior administration official described the upcoming talks as “sensitive diplomatic conversations,” noting that national security advisers from Ukraine and other European allies are scheduled to meet with Rubio on August 21. The discussions aim to define “what the security guarantees could look like” ahead of any potential meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.

Security guarantees could take a variety of forms. They might include U.S. air support for European-led operations if Russian forces resume hostilities, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assistance for Ukrainian missions, or a naval presence to prevent Russian control of the Black Sea and access to the Danube.

The talks are also expected to explore how to make any guarantees legally binding, including whether congressional approval would be required.

“From a European perspective, I think everyone is quite happy that Rubio is leading the working group, because he’s definitely perceived as the one who is most competent to come up with something that could actually work,” said Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations.

She added that European leaders hold a lower view of some other Trump administration officials but value Rubio’s longstanding relationships in Europe through his Senate tenure, where he served on the intelligence and foreign relations committees.

“There will be no troops on the ground, but what Europeans have always asked for is logistical support, especially when it comes to intelligence, because Europeans basically don’t have that capability themselves,” Fix said.

Rubio’s appointment reflects his evolution from a hard-line Russia hawk to a Republican aligned more closely with Trump’s “America First” approach, while also signalling his growing standing within the administration. He has been privy to Trump’s calls with Putin, and unlike other Trump envoys with limited diplomatic experience, Rubio brings years of expertise in foreign policy and national security.

Some officials had previously viewed Rubio with scepticism following his 2016 presidential rivalry with Trump, but his demonstrated loyalty has earned him expanded responsibilities. In addition to serving as secretary of state and national security adviser, he now also oversees U.S. A.I.D. and acts as archivist at the National Archives.

“From what I’ve been hearing, I think everyone inside of the administration has been very happy with him, and some even pleasantly surprised,” said Leslie Shedd, a fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Centre. “They didn’t know what to expect, and he has really been there standing up for the president, and fighting for what the president wants.”

Rubio has moved closer to Trump’s “America First” foreign policy ahead of the 2024 election and has moderated his criticism of the Russian president to facilitate negotiations. “We can’t end the war without talking to Putin,” he said in congressional testimony in May, stopping short of repeating prior accusations that Putin is a war criminal.

“War crimes have been committed, no doubt. And who is responsible for that? There will be a time and place for that accountability. But right now, the job is to end the war.”

European leaders have requested “Article 5-like” protections for Ukraine, invoking the NATO commitment that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. Such assurances could entail U.S. troop involvement if European allies are attacked in Ukraine — a step Trump has ruled out.

Fix noted that Europeans are aware of Russia’s history of protracted negotiations aimed at improving its position on the battlefield, recalling the Minsk talks of 2014–2015 following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. “That experience of negotiating with Russia for a really long time is something that they remember from Minsk and how that led nowhere,” she said.

Even if European governments pledge support, domestic opposition could complicate deployment. Trump recently suggested on Fox News that France, Germany, and Britain might commit “boots on the ground” as part of a security guarantee.

“Even if Europeans say we are ready to do that, I would expect that for some countries, it might actually not be that easy, especially if Trump’s security guarantees, or whatever Rubio proposes, is not as strong as Europeans would like to see it,” Fix said.

By Aghakazim Guliyev