Russia’s decision to build naval base in Abkhazia threatens South Caucasus To condemn or not condemn?

On October 6, the Russian governmental media reported that Moscow had been planning to establish a permanent naval base in the Ochamchire district of occupied Abkhazia for quite some time. On October 4, the leader of the separatist regime in Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhania, reaffirmed that agreement when he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi. If built, the base will be the third military installation on Georgian soil and the second in Abkhazia itself.

Prior to the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, around 5,000 Russian troops were stationed in the region. This has since dropped as troops have been deployed to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. There have been various indications that Russia now has far fewer forces in Abkhazia.

Russia already possesses permanent military bases stationed in Abkhazia and South Ossetia; The Russian 4th Military Base in South Ossetia, operated by 4,500 conscripts and contractors; and the Russian 7th Military Base in Abkhazia.

The Georgian side responded by stating that such moves represented a gross violation of Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity and another provocative attempt to legitimize the illegal occupation of the Abkhazia and Tskhinvali regions of Georgia. The move came amid Russia’s efforts to move its fleet as far as possible from Crimea, which is frequently targeted by Ukraine’s drone and missile attacks.

Moscow and Kyiv had escalated tensions on the key waterway since July when Russia exited a deal guaranteeing safe passage for cargo ships to and from Ukraine's Black Sea ports. As of October 2023, at least 17 Russian vessels have relocated from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.

The site of the purported new Abkhazia base is 500km (300 miles) further southeast of Novorossiysk, along the Black Sea coast. Basing vessels in Abkhazia would raise the prospect of Russia launching attacks from Georgian territory or Ukrainian attacks on Georgian soil.

Beyond representing another gross violation of Georgian sovereignty, the naval base will also be within striking distance of Georgia’s long-cherished plan to construct the Anaklia deep seaport, seen as a game-changer in regional connectivity such as the expanding Middle Corridor.

Work on the port is about to start as Abkhazia and Russia have already signed an agreement, and the new base will be in the Ochamchira district "in the near future," despite strong opposition from Tbilisi and Western partners.

The Georgian Dream government has been pursuing a more pro-Russian course in recent years. It has explained such policies based on the desire for lasting peace and the issue of Georgia's territorial integrity.

Russia's latest steps, nevertheless, demonstrate that the Kremlin does not intend to make any concessions to Tbilisi. The more the Georgian government concedes the more Moscow seems to demand from it. As such, Russia’s decision to install a new navy base just a few kilometres away from Georgia put the ruling government in an awkward situation considering its pragmatic stance toward Moscow.

Russia's reportedly small permanent naval base near Ochamchire, Abkhazia

The Kremlin’s influence over the region has long been a contentious issue, with thousands of Russian troops still stationed within the territory and along the border with Georgia, which has repeatedly expressed interest in joining both NATO and the EU over the years.

However, with the installation of a new military navy base on its soil, Abkhazia may become a legitimate target for Ukraine's missile and drone attacks to prevent Russian ships from attacking Ukraine's coastal area. The Kyiv government has proved to have a long arm, hitting the Kremlin, along with an airbase 600 km from its border, and numerous other military targets across Russia.

Nonetheless, from the Abkhazian perspective, the breakaway region is keen to deepen its alignment with Russia as a part of the earlier agreement and strategy to establish a joint socio-economic space with Moscow, including adopting Russian law. Moreover, the new navy base would mean additional employment opportunities for poorly-developed Abkhazia.

Notwithstanding Russia’s tactical losses in Ukraine and shrinking economy in the wake of Western-imposed sanctions, Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia still prefer to remain in Moscow’s orbit, rejecting any reconciliation with Georgia.

In addition, Moscow’s latest steps, aimed at strengthening its position in the region, increasingly look inconsistent and chaotic. Therefore, the second naval base in Abkhazia indicates Russia's plans to maintain a destructive strategy in the fragile region and keep Georgia divided by supporting the local separatist governments.