Russian crude shipments slip slightly ahead of Trump-Putin summit

Russia’s crude oil exports slightly declined for the third consecutive week but remain within this year’s typical range, with minimal immediate impact from threatened U.S. tariffs ahead of a Trump-Putin summit on August 15.

According to Bloomberg, four-week average seaborne crude shipments dropped 3% to 3.11 million barrels per day (bpd) for the period ending August 10, down from 3.21 million bpd the previous period, while weekly flows rose to 3.33 million bpd, driven by larger cargoes at Novorossiysk.

India’s state-owned refiners have started sourcing some non-Russian crude due to a 25% U.S. tariff on Indian exports, effective August 27, but the impact on Russian shipments will take weeks to assess. Indian companies may avoid spot purchases of Russian crude for October but await government guidance.

The tariffs could still be reversed, and White House adviser Peter Navarro downplayed potential tariffs on China. Most Pacific shipments go to China, while Baltic-to-India voyages take about a month, allowing time for tariff resolutions.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, including Rosneft’s Ryazan, Novokuibyshevsk, and Saratov plants in early August, reduced crude processing, potentially increasing exportable crude, though effects will lag.

Tracking Pacific shipments is complicated by increased spoofing of ship signals at Kozmino, following patterns in the Baltic, Black Sea, and Murmansk, raising risks of data revisions. Bloomberg tracks flows using ship signals, port reports, and satellite imagery.

In the week to August 10, 30 tankers loaded 23.31 million barrels of Russian crude, up from 22.72 million the prior week. Export value fell 4% to $1.38 billion due to lower prices: Urals crude averaged $57.26-$57.59 per barrel (down $3), Pacific ESPO $63.10 (down $4), and delivered prices in India $66.79 (down $3.10), per Argus Media. Four-week average prices were $58.80-$59 for Urals and $65.01 for ESPO, with export value at $1.33 billion weekly.

Shipments to Asian customers, including those with unclear destinations, dropped to 2.73 million bpd from 2.79 million bpd, with 530,000 bpd heading to Port Said, Suez, or Pacific ports without clear endpoints, and 50,000 bpd on tankers yet to signal destinations.

Vessels increasingly delay signalling destinations until near discharge ports. Flows to Türkiye hit a low of 280,000 bpd, and Syria received 70,000 bpd.

The impact of U.S. tariffs on India’s Russian crude purchases remains unclear, with potential reversals possible as destinations clarify.

By Tamilla Hasanova