Russian expert rules out change of power in Armenia

From the start of the post-conflict period (after the 44-day war in Karabakh in 2020) to the present, the current protests in Armenia are the largest in scale, and they can, in a certain sense, to destabilize the country's internal political situation, but there is no threat of a change of power at the moment.

Sergey Margulis, a Russian expert, senior lecturer at the Department of International Politics and Foreign Regional Studies at the Institute of Social Sciences of RANEPA [Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration], made the remarks in an interview with Caliber.az, while commenting on the actions of disobedience in Armenia.

According to the Russian expert, Pashinyan's acceptance of the five basic principles proposed by Baku, as well as his statements about the absence of territorial claims against Azerbaijan, are the main reason for the current protests, since they are regarded in Armenia as a "betrayal of the national interests of the Armenian people".

"The situation in Armenia is really unstable, but I think it does not pose any potential threats to the current regime yet. A change of power in Armenia is unlikely at the moment, although I would not completely rule out such a scenario.

As for the potential risk of unleashing a new phase of the war, I think this possibility is also low. It is unlikely that Armenia will decide on such a thing now.

It is an obvious fact that Armenian nationalists are extremely radical towards Azerbaijan and Turkey. Therefore, if we hypothetically assume a possible change of power in Armenia, then in this case the escalation of tension in the country will increase significantly. Accordingly, in this scenario, I would not rule out the possibility of unleashing a new phase of the military conflict, given that a group of people eager for revenge has concentrated behind the backs of the current opposition leaders. But this is again a hypothetical alignment on the situation in Armenia. In reality, the opposition's capabilities are not enough to carry out a coup, which was also shown by the elections in Armenia. The election results confirmed that the rating of Kocharyan and other representatives of the opposition is much lower than the rating of Pashinyan himself. Therefore, I believe that for a significant part of the population, Pashinyan's candidacy as a key figure in the government is the most acceptable," the expert continued.

As for the Armenian-Turkish agenda, Sergey Margulis estimates that at present, especially against the background of protest unrest in Armenia, the process of normalization of relations is unlikely.

"Despite the negotiation process involving Armenian and Turkish special representatives, I do not believe that relations between Ankara and Yerevan will be normalized in the near future. Even though some Armenian politicians, including Pashinyan himself, have stated that Armenia is willing to normalize relations with Turkey, I believe it is premature to discuss diplomatic relations between the two countries. At least for the time being.

Pashinyan will almost certainly have to make some concessions to the protesters. As a result, the intensity of the negotiations with Azerbaijan and Turkey may decrease," Sergey Margulis said.