Strategies to manage China's ascent in a shifting global order

The article "The Most Dangerous Game: Do Power Transitions Always Lead to War?" from Foreign Affairs explores the dynamics and challenges posed by China's rise in relation to the existing international order dominated by the United States.

The central question revolves around whether the inevitable power transition between an established hegemon and a rising challenger, as described by power transition theory, will lead to conflict.

The article begins by recalling the initial optimism in Washington that China's rise could be managed through integration into international institutions and adherence to Western norms. However, recent developments have shown China increasingly challenging and diverging from this order, setting the stage for potential conflicts over issues like Taiwan, the South China Sea, and economic decoupling.

The concept of the Thucydides Trap, popularized by Graham Allison, frames the U.S.-China rivalry within the historical context of Athens and Sparta, where the rise of Athens led to fear and eventual war with Sparta. This analogy underscores the risks associated with power transitions when the rising power challenges the status quo.

Power transition theory, rooted in the work of scholars like A. F. K. Organski, suggests that dissatisfaction with the distribution of global goods often motivates rising powers to challenge the dominant power, potentially leading to conflict. The article emphasizes that how the established power manages the international order is crucial—whether it accommodates the rising power or confronts it directly can shape the trajectory towards peace or war.

Moreover, the article highlights the strategic nuances in how rising powers interact with the international order. Rising powers like China may selectively challenge existing norms while cooperating on others, aiming to leverage the current order for their own benefit until they can potentially reshape it in their favor. This approach reflects a calculated strategy to gain influence without outright confrontation.

In responding to the challenges posed by China's rise, the article argues that the United States must reconsider its approach to managing the international order. Rather than solely focusing on containment or direct confrontation, the U.S. should strategically use its alliances and influence to strengthen the liberal international order. This includes addressing new issues such as cybersecurity and social media governance, where international norms are lacking but crucial for future stability.

The article critiques the current U.S. strategy as insufficiently adaptive to the shifting global dynamics. It points out that initiatives like the Biden administration's Summit for Democracy and efforts to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative lack the cohesive and strategic approach needed to effectively compete with China on a global scale.

Ultimately, the article concludes that to avoid the pitfalls of historical power transitions leading to conflict, the United States must proactively lead in reforming and fortifying the international order. This involves not only maintaining existing alliances but also forging new partnerships that align with U.S. interests and values. By doing so, the U.S. can mitigate the risks of conflict while navigating the complexities of China's rise as a global power.

In summary, Foreign Affairs' article provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges posed by China's rise to the U.S.-led international order, drawing on historical parallels and theoretical frameworks to suggest strategies for maintaining stability and reducing the likelihood of conflict in a changing global landscape.