Study: China’s carbon data shift may have masked half of emissions rise

China’s revised method for reporting carbon emissions may have significantly understated the country’s recent emissions growth, according to new research that raises questions about transparency in tracking climate progress from the world’s largest emitter.

A study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a European think-tank, suggests that changes to Beijing’s calculation of carbon intensity — the amount of CO₂ emitted per unit of economic output — have reduced the apparent rise in emissions over the past five years, Financial Times cites.

Under the revised methodology, China’s carbon intensity in its economy rose by 7% between 2020 and 2025, CREA said. The group argues this is roughly half the increase indicated under previous calculations, a discrepancy it estimates corresponds to around 700 million tonnes of carbon dioxide — comparable to annual emissions from major industrial economies such as Germany and South Korea.

The findings come amid ongoing global scrutiny of China’s climate commitments. While Beijing has pledged to peak emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060, analysts say rising coal consumption continues to challenge those goals, even as the country rapidly expands renewable energy and electrifies transport systems.

CREA said the revised accounting method could make it appear that China is on track to meet its target of reducing carbon intensity by 65% below 2005 levels by 2030.

“While China has never officially defined how it measures carbon intensity, it has now made what appears to be a retrospective change, with the effect of making targets easier to meet,” CREA said in the analysis. “The change in the definition of carbon intensity has the effect of weakening China’s climate targets and introducing more uncertainty into tracking progress.”

The report argues that under earlier methods, China’s carbon intensity had fallen by 12.4% between 2020 and 2025, suggesting the country would miss an 18% reduction target under that framework.

By contrast, revised figures published in March as part of China’s latest five-year plan indicated a 17.7% reduction.

According to CREA, the difference appears to stem from a change in methodology, with carbon intensity now calculated using industrial process emissions while excluding certain non-energy uses of fossil fuels.

The report also highlights broader concerns about the consistency of Chinese official data in recent years. It notes that Beijing has previously stopped publishing or revised several key statistical series, including investment data, price indices used for inflation adjustments, and property sector land purchase figures.

In 2023, China also temporarily suspended youth unemployment data before later releasing revised figures.

The findings come as China continues to position itself as a leader in global climate diplomacy. UN climate chief Simon Stiell recently described the country as a “leading light” in multilateral climate efforts, while also urging faster reductions in fossil fuel use.

“China has played a major role in getting the global energy transition to a point which is now irreversible,” Stiell said during an event at Tsinghua University.

The CREA report argues that changes in emissions accounting methods could complicate efforts to independently verify China’s progress toward its long-term climate goals.

By Sabina Mammadli