"The CSTO is more of a fiction, but its formal dissolution is still a long way off" Experts comment on Pashinyan's demarche

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said at a news conference on January 10 that Yerevan does not consider it expedient to host the previously scheduled CSTO military exercises in the current situation. This statement was preceded by a high-profile decision taken by Pashinyan on November 23 during a meeting of the CSTO Council in Yerevan, when the Armenian head of government did not sign the CSTO declaration and draft aid to Armenia. He justified this by the fact that the declaration lacked an assessment of "Azerbaijan's invasion of Armenia's sovereign territory".

"The failure to sign the CSTO declaration in Yerevan is a manifestation of disappointment in the organisation," Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told a press conference on January 10. He called it a translation of the proposal from diplomatic language. "Yes, there is a problem," Pashinyan stated. According to his assessment, the deadline will be when the parties realize that negotiations between Armenia and other CSTO members are meaningless. "I don't think negotiations are meaningless now. Our partners don't seem to consider them pointless either. Another thing is that either our assessment or theirs may change at any time," the Armenian Prime Minister noted.

All this begs the question of whether Armenia is likely to withdraw from the CSTO. Hasn't Pashinyan expressed this rather transparently? The Turkic states are also members of the CSTO, which will hardly ever agree to directly condemn any action of Azerbaijan against Armenia, especially since no international organization has so far recorded any "invasion". What will happen to the CSTO if Armenia leaves it? And does Moscow have any tools to prevent Yerevan from doing so?

Prominent foreign experts answered these questions for Caliber.Az.

Kazakh analyst Mukhtar Taizhan believes Armenia's possible withdrawal from the CSTO would be a moral blow to the bloc.

"It is unlikely that Armenia has been a powerful component of this organisation militarily, but in terms of moral damage, Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO would be very tangible. This would set a precedent, and other member states might have similar sentiments," the expert said.

To date, Moscow has little leverage to prevent Yerevan from leaving the CSTO, he believes.

"Why? Because, first, Armenia has no common border with Russia. Secondly, Yerevan has alternative support from Europe, especially France, where the position of the Armenian diaspora is strong, as well as in the United States. I recall the recent visit of the then-speaker of the lower house of the American parliament, Nancy Pelosi to Yerevan. In other words, she demonstrated to Yerevan the moral support of America. Therefore, Armenia, of course, has other supporting points.

Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia was Armenia's very important partner. That is to say, Russia today, militarily, could hardly open a second front in Karabakh for Armenia, even hypothetically. Because this would not be tolerated by Türkiye either. This means that Russia no longer has many tools to influence Armenia.

Economically, Armenia may well turn on Türkiye, if it changes its foreign policy vector at all. After all, Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly indicated that he is ready for the restoration of good neighbourly relations with Armenia if it renounces any claims on Karabakh. If Armenia recognises the internationally recognised borders of Azerbaijan, then it will have excellent prospects for attracting investment from Türkiye, among others. It is simply unrealistic to attract investments from Russia in today's conditions," he said.

Vladislav Inozemtsev, a Russian political scientist, head of the Centre for Post-Industrial Society Studies, and sociologist, believes that Pashinyan is understandable; the situation is indeed very difficult for him.

"Armenia has no allies who would be ready to interfere in the situation other than Russia. Therefore, such blackmail against Moscow will certainly continue - as the only possibility to somehow influence Putin.

I think that Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO is unlikely in the near future because for Pashinyan this is too radical. Most likely, he will not go for it. But the organisation itself, the glory days are left behind. Actually, they never were, by and large.

But Russia is so toxic now that I don't think any CSTO country will try to get support from it and will be afraid to involve it in its internal affairs.

CSTO's prospects are unpromising. It has not established itself as an organisation. It will keep its structures in such a semi-functional state for some time. But I'll repeat once more, I don't think this organisation is effective. Moscow is stuck in Ukraine, it has no other goals, and its capabilities (especially in Central Asia, where China is nearby) are very limited. Therefore, the CSTO is more of a fiction, but its formal dissolution is still a long way off," Inozemtsev said.