UK braces for Channel migrant surge as French government faces collapse

British authorities are raising concerns over a potential surge in illegal migration across the English Channel amid instability in the French government.

Previously announced plans by the French police to intercept migrant boats at sea may be at risk as François Bayrou’s minority government seems likely to be toppled in a confidence vote next month, Caliber.Az reports citing an article by The Times.

In June, the French cabinet approved changes to maritime law allowing border police, gendarmes, and coastguard vessels to stop migrant boats within 300 metres of the coast—a move British officials described as a “gamechanger” in efforts to curb small-boat crossings.

However, this maritime law, which was set to take effect this summer, could be reconsidered in Paris if the current government falls.

Under current French law, authorities cannot intervene once a migrant boat is in the water unless it requests rescue, forcing police to attempt to stop vessels before they set off.

On August 25, Prime Minister Bayrou announced a confidence vote for September 8, which his government is expected to lose amid opposition frustration over controversial budget plans. His 2026 budget proposals include approximately €44 billion in fiscal tightening, freezing welfare and pension spending, keeping tax brackets at 2025 levels, and eliminating two public holidays—moves widely criticized by the public.

By Nazrin Sadigova