US vs. EU: Will Trump’s unpredictability push Europe toward autonomy? Political forecasts 

What if Elon Musk, with his ambition to use "Starlink" for European connectivity, becomes a future threat to Europe by simply turning the service off? What if the United States, which supplies a wide range of weapons to various countries, decides to cut off Europe's access to ammunition and spare parts? Not out of a desire to see Europe fail, but because the U.S. is imposing its own conditions and demanding compliance? The issue may not be about European failure but about securing political or economic leverage, such as access to minerals or strategic concessions.

It is also possible—perhaps even likely—that the U.S. will initiate a trade war with Europe in the near future. What if, in exchange for vital weapons supplies, on which European countries heavily depend, the U.S. demands European resources or substantial trade concessions? And even if these demands are met, what guarantees are there that the U.S. won’t continue to push for more?

The current U.S. President is making it clear that there are no longer any binding obligations toward allies or previous agreements made with Washington. Europe, once a close partner, might now find itself facing a future where it must navigate a more complex and unpredictable relationship with the United States.

During his previous presidential term in 2017, Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, signed under Barack Obama (where Iran abandoned its nuclear weapons program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions), and imposed the heaviest sanctions on Tehran in history.

At the same time, he threatened Japan and South Korea with the removal of U.S. bases from their territories. Both countries are in a complex geopolitical neighbourhood with North Korea and the increasingly powerful China, and they do not possess nuclear weapons, while China and North Korea do.

Trump's views on the European Union are widely known, seeing it as an opponent of the U.S., an economic competitor. This is why the new administration is so eager to undermine Europe from within by supporting far-right parties. It’s not just about their opposition to migrants and xenophobia, but also because these parties, to varying degrees, are critics of the EU.

Additionally, Trump has made negative comments about NATO, which he considers a burden. As former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton points out, the president is quite capable of deciding to withdraw from NATO or, at the very least, trying to weaken the alliance as much as possible. This would nullify all military obligations the U.S. has towards Europeans.

It’s not just Trump’s views, but primarily his unpredictability, which he himself takes pride in and considers an advantage. While this may be an advantage in tactical terms, in strategic terms, it has become a problem.

In such conditions, many countries, especially the largest and most developed ones—Germany, Japan, South Korea—will likely strive to maximize the development of their own defence complexes and armed forces, and may even pursue the creation of nuclear weapons.

Türkiye has long realized that the U.S. is no longer a reliable partner. This is one of the reasons why it maintains the second-largest army in NATO and has spent decades developing its defence industry. Ankara is building a defence complex as a self-sufficient weapons production ecosystem, with various elements that are interconnected and complement each other. This includes precision-guided missile systems, a large range of drones, next-generation fifth-generation aircraft, tanks, and aircraft carriers. Additionally, Türkiye’s foreign and domestic policies have become more independent from Washington.

Europe already possesses its own highly developed defence industry, including pan-European conglomerates, and it is quite possible that it will follow a similar path, leading to an increasingly independent internal and external policy from Washington. This could result in the emergence of multiple competing centres of power on the planet, which would return the world to the pre-World War II era of the 1930s.

But what if Trump and Musk's plan regarding Europe succeeds, and the European Union ceases to exist? Even individually, some countries, particularly Germany, are powerful economic and political actors. In this case, they would have to rearm independently and create new military and economic blocs, such as an alliance with France or Italy.

Or will far-right parties come to power everywhere, becoming puppets of America? It’s possible, but doubtful. The U.S. was able to effectively influence European politics for decades after World War II. However, this was primarily because Washington promised European countries protection through NATO, provided them with economic assistance (the Marshall Plan), and negotiated free trade and transatlantic economic partnerships.

In contrast, Trump is a proponent of American nationalism and economic protectionism, and he is also an unpredictable politician. He is an opponent of NATO and someone who wants to strip European countries of their protection. In this case, it’s unclear why such an America would be necessary for Europeans. Of course, they will continue to trade with it, but their interests are likely to shift towards increasing autonomy, much like Türkiye's approach.