What does Robert Malley’s suspension mean for US’ Iran strategy? Downplaying the security clearance

On June 29, the major media outlets in the US reported that President Joe Biden's Special envoy for Iran, Rob Malley, was placed on unpaid leave. The surprise move came after the US State Department conducted a special investigation into the possible mishandling of classified documents. Shortly after, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) overtook the investigation from the State Department, signalling that a major political scandal may soon occur within the Biden administration ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in 2024.

Rob Malley, a long-serving bureaucrat during the Obama administration and now re-appointed during the Biden administration, has been one of the key figures and negotiations of the US-Iran nuclear deal signed in 2015 and known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Under its terms, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars worth of sanctions relief.

Proponents of the deal said that it would help prevent a revival of Iran's nuclear weapons program and thereby reduce the prospects for conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, including Israel and Saudi Arabia.

However, not all were satisfied with the terms of the JCPOA, particularly Israel, as they claimed that the conditions were quite liberal for Iran and did not guarantee that Tehran would re-launch the nuclear program in the future. Considering it, President Donald Trump, a fierce critic of President Barack Obama, was quick to abandon the nuclear agreement with Iran in 2018.

Shortly after, albeit unsuccessfully, Rob Malley was re-appointed as a special envoy for Iran to initiate the new round of nuclear talks with Iran in Vienna. For almost three years, the US was engaged in nuclear negotiations with Iran, which refused to sign the new deal with old terms seeking further concessions from the West.

However, Rob Malley's frequent meetings with the Iranian officials yielded no positive results. As a result, Washington has maintained restoring the JCPOA is currently not a priority. Rob Malley's failure to bring visible results and his personal sympathy for Iran caused immense criticism of his professional attitude in the West and Israel.

For example, when Iranian-linked militant groups in Iraq launched a series of missile attacks against the US troops stationed in this country in March 2021, Rob Malley’s calm reaction and calls for “negotiations” were other signs of his deep sympathy towards Iran.

The language US envoy Malley used to respond to Iran’s hostile statements also suggested that he was either driven by animosity towards his own country, the US, or by his hatred for himself as an American, or both. There are no other ways to explain his defeatist approach.

On the other hand, some analysts argue that Malley’s removal stems from political infighting within the White House. The news site suggested that Malley and State Secretary Antony Blinken had wanted to reach a comprehensive deal with Iran that encompasses various issues, such as terrorism, missile power and the axis of resistance.

Considering Mr Malley's essential role in formulating US policy towards Iran, his abrupt and prolonged absence raised considerable questions about whether he will be sacked from his position or remain until the end of this year.

However, several sources recently speculated that Malley’s work has been under scrutiny for several months. Thus, according to the Tehran Times, a pro-regime publication, the exact date of Malley's suspension was April 21, when the Diplomatic Security Department informed Malley that his security clearance was suspended due to his not having maintained classified documents.

The appearance of such a report in a pro-governmental Iranian media outlet, at a time when even the US Congress had not been informed, raised additional questions regarding Malley's possible ties with the Iranian political establishment.

Indeed, the Congress's lack of information about the ongoing investigation targeting a high-profile state bureaucrat triggered debates and raised eyebrows within the US political elite, especially at a time when Iran and the US held confidential negotiations in Oman.

Regardless of the results of this investigation, Malley's suspension has been of grave concern to the Biden administration, risking a controversy at a time critical to nuclear negotiations as Iran's uranium enrichment proceeds unhindered.

Undoubtedly, this investigation will affect the internal power dynamics in the high echelons of US politics and will put the future career prospects of Malley’s assistants and advisors under question, creating a ground for the fall of the Biden administration's Iranian policy.