What policy will Ankara follow after 2023? Expert forecast on Caliber.Az

"Erdoğan has prepared well for the upcoming elections in 2023," Amur Hajiyev, Director of the Russian Centre for Study of Modern Türkiye, told Caliber.Az, commenting on the presidential elections in Türkiye to be held in 2023.

Haciyev noted that Türkiye is currently experiencing certain economic difficulties.

"First of all, there is intensive work going on now to mitigate the existing problems and get some external investment funds. Erdoğan is working in this direction with Russia, China, Arab countries, with the Organization of Turkic States. This creates conditions for improving the economic situation in Türkiye.

Secondly, Türkiye's relations with the West are in a prolonged crisis. The United States strongly emphasizes that it has alternatives and thus continues to provide material and military support to the Syrian Kurds. All this creates an unfavorable background for the presidential election. However, Erdoğan has prepared well for the upcoming elections. In 2023, Türkiye will launch several mega projects, which should contribute to improving the economic situation in the country and raise the country's status in the geopolitical arena. In this context, Erdogan can be credited with continuing to turn Türkiye into a multidisciplinary hub on a regional scale. This applies to transport, energy and even food, as part of the grain corridor. We also know that Azerbaijan is ready to double gas supplies to Europe via Türkiye. In other words, Türkiye is turning into a regional super hub with a global weight. Launching the planned projects will free up a significant part of the budget funds to channel them in a different direction, including improving the well-being of Turkish citizens. This, of course, is a big foreign policy plus point for Erdoğan, who will play a significant role in the domestic political arena.

Therefore, he will win the upcoming elections," the expert stressed.

At the same time, according to Hajiyev, Erdoğan has no significant rival in the upcoming elections.

"There is an opposition six who are trying to oppose Erdogan and the ruling party respectively, but their agenda is limited because it is exclusively related to removing Erdoğan from the political arena of the country and returning the past political system, more specifically the parliamentary form of government. That is, their goal is to abandon the presidential republic and reapply the principles of a parliamentary state. Personally, I do not see any other substantial proposals that could elevate them before Erdoğan and give them some advantages over the ruling coalition. In addition, it is known that the opposition has not decided on a common candidate. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is the only possible figure, and he is doing his best to ensure that there are no more competitors for this role. In short, if we have to choose between Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu, the choice is obvious in the current domestic political arena. That is why the Turkish opposition is behaving rather modestly. Their efforts are far from sufficient to win the upcoming elections," he said.

If Erdoğan still loses the presidential election, then, according to Hajiyev, Türkiye's policy towards the South Caucasus may change.

"If we hypothetically assume that Erdoğan suddenly loses the presidential election, the pro-Western vector in Türkiye's policy will strengthen. In this case, there could be some change. If the ruling coalition loses, we can assume that Türkiye's foreign policy rhetoric will change, particularly in the direction of the South Caucasus. In this case, some changes in relation to Azerbaijan and Armenia are possible. However, if we consider that the process of Turkish-Armenian normalization has begun, then it will continue. Another thing is whether it will continue in conjunction with the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement.

Nevertheless, it is known that Western countries also insist on rapprochement with Armenia. It is enough to pay attention to what is happening now with the trilateral formats between Azerbaijan, Armenia and the EU. Based on this, we can assume that there may be some changes, but they are unlikely to be of a pivotal nature. The relations with Azerbaijan are still a state direction, the foreign policy orientation of Türkiye, and it will develop regardless of which political power will be at the helm," Hajiyev concluded.