Why did Saudi diplomats leave Kabul? Analysis by Foreign Policy

Lynne O’Donnell, an Australian journalist and author has written an article for the Foreign Policy magazine claiming that as the Taliban start to crack, Afghanistan is once again the proxy battleground of terrorists and their backers. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

When Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Jassim bin Mohammed al-Khalidi, arrived in Pakistan in early February, he checked into the five-star Marriott Hotel in downtown Islamabad with the entire staff of his embassy and a mountain of luggage. A source described their departure from Kabul as an “evacuation,” sparking a rush for explanations why one of the main backers of the Taliban, and one of the few countries with a diplomatic presence in Kabul, would suddenly pull out its diplomats.

The last time the Taliban were in charge, from 1996 to 2001, three countries granted them recognition: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan. This time, the Taliban don’t have any formal recognition, though about a dozen countries have maintained their embassies, including China, Iran, Türkiye, Japan, Russia, and some Central Asian states. The United Nations also has a mission in Kabul. But Saudi Arabia isn’t the only friend of the Taliban to decamp; the UAE and Qatar have downgraded their presence, according to security and diplomatic sources. Pakistan hasn’t sent its ambassador back to Kabul since he left after an assassination attempt as he strolled in his embassy garden in December. The Saudi foreign ministry in Riyadh did not answer emails or phone calls; the Saudi Embassy in Islamabad could not be reached, nor could anyone with the 19-member Saudi delegation that stayed at the Marriott, staff said, until Feb. 10.

Like everything to do with the Taliban since they took over Afghanistan 18 months ago, there are as many questions as answers behind the sudden exodus. As Afghanistan recedes into darkness thanks to a crackdown on journalists and civil society, pinpointing what’s going on and why can be even more difficult than it was under the republic. The multilateral organizations that operate in Afghanistan are just as guarded. Bilal Sarwary, a veteran Afghan journalist now living in Canada, says his homeland has become as murky as North Korea.

Sources in Kabul, Islamabad, and elsewhere cited a range of reasons for the diplomatic departures, including threats by the local Islamic State branch, Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-K), and internecine Taliban rivalries between factions backed by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Pakistan on the one hand and those backed by Iran and drug cartels operated by its military on the other. One former Afghan security official called the Saudi flight a “successful coup” by the Iran-backed factions.

The Islamic State has a growing presence in Afghanistan and is said to be recruiting among anti-Taliban groups, such as former members of the republic’s security forces and non-Pashtuns, though its main purpose so far appears to be providing the Taliban with a hook for counterterrorism dialogue with the United States.

“IS-K is portrayed as the main threat to many countries, including the United States, making the Taliban appear as a lesser evil. This is a deliberate strategy to absolve the Taliban of their actions and present them as ‘good’ terrorists,” said Mirwais Naab, a former deputy foreign minister of the republic. “The IS-K threat is real but not against the Saudis at this stage. The main threat to the Saudis is still al Qaeda and its close affiliates.”

The Taliban are just one al Qaeda acolyte; many more have been given safe haven in the new Afghanistan, and the Taliban refuse to denounce the group. The United States killed al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a drone strike last year on a Kabul villa, where he was protected by Taliban suicide-bombing guru, and de facto interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who backed the Taliban’s victory, told a security meeting in Moscow last week that “international terrorist organizations are stepping up their activities” in Afghanistan, “including al Qaeda, which is building up its potential.”

Naab said the widening fissures within the Taliban are behind the growing strength of terrorist and jihadi groups now based in Afghanistan. “It is not possible for terrorist groups like IS-K and al Qaeda to function and carry out their operations without the intricate support of various factions within the Taliban. Addressing the effect is not the solution—you have to address the cause,” he said.

Haqqani is among a clique of Taliban figures who have Saudi support. In Iran’s corner is the Taliban’s supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, who “has an almost complete monopolization of both governance authority, in all sectors, as well as religious authority, with the help of his close allies,” said Zalmai Nishat, formerly a senior public policy advisor to the republic and an expert on extremism.

Akhundzada’s edicts have eliminated women from public life and largely locked non-Pashtuns and non-Sunnis out of the power structure. He has surrounded himself with hard-line figures from the earlier Taliban regime to reduce the clout of rivals like Haqqani and others, Afghan security sources said. “It seems increasingly the Iranians are strengthening their ties with Haibatullah’s office,” Nishat said. The United States has slapped financial sanctions on some figures in Akhundzada’s circle, such as Deputy Interior Minister Ibrahim Sadr, and their Iranian backers.

Akhundzada has appointed old-guard allies close to Iran to a new military council in the capital, set up to further consolidate his power in Kandahar, in Afghanistan’s south. “Some senior Taliban members say the departure of the Saudis is the sign of a successful coup plot against [Taliban figures] who are trying to rule Afghanistan from Kabul,” the former security official said. As if to confirm the growing animosity between the Kabul and Kandahar factions, Haqqani has publicly blamed Akhundzada for the sorry state of the country.

But the diplomatic departures may also be an attempt to curb Akhundzada’s ideological excesses, which are strangling the country. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Pakistan could also be responding to U.S. pressure; Washington just started cracking down on continued Taliban excesses, including visa restrictions and pointed words for international agencies that comply with the Taliban’s misogynist rules. Meanwhile, the economic incompetence piled atop extremism has led to poverty, capital flight, and brain drain.

Just the whisper last week that flights were taking volunteers to Türkiye to help earthquake victims sparked a rush to Kabul’s airport reminiscent of the awful scenes during the August 2021 evacuation, as people saw a chance to escape increasing desperation. “Do you know of a second nation where people are feeling this disgusted about their country? It is humiliating,” a Kabul resident said.