Why Trump has better cards at negotiation table with Iran than Biden ever did Article by CNBC

During the second round of indirect nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States—held in Rome following an initial meeting in Oman—the two sides continue to engage exclusively through Omani intermediaries, avoiding direct contact. Analysts suggest that Iran's increasingly fragile economy, a consequence of the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under President Trump in 2018, may now afford the Trump administration a stronger negotiating position than that of its predecessor Biden.

An article by the US CNBC publication argues that this round of diplomacy underscores a striking shift from the Biden administration’s position just a few years ago. The Iranian delegation is led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while US President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff heads the American team. These talks carry significant political weight, given the two nations’ opposing stances on key global issues, including the Middle East crisis. Iran’s Foreign Ministry has described the earlier meeting as taking place in a “constructive atmosphere and based on mutual respect.”

Under former President Biden, efforts to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) were hindered by both Iranian resistance and domestic criticism of appearing too lenient. In contrast, Trump now returns to talks with far more leverage due to Iran’s severely weakened economic and geopolitical standing.

Gregory Brew of the Eurasia Group told the publication that he believes the Iranians are "a little bit more desperate than they were in 2022,” pointing to Iran’s faltering economy and growing internal unrest. The collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria and Israel’s targeting of Hezbollah’s leadership have also dealt heavy blows to Iran’s regional influence. Trump’s administration, not constrained by political optics, has already reimposed harsh “maximum pressure” sanctions, adding to Tehran’s urgency for a deal.

Since Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran has experienced significant economic deterioration, including a collapsing currency, persistent protests, and a deepening cost-of-living crisis. Despite previous hardline positions, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly been persuaded by officials to support negotiations, viewing them as essential for regime survival. Trump, meanwhile, has taken a hard stance: he refuses to tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran. This comes amid increasing concerns from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which recently reiterated that “Iran remains the only non-nuclear weapon state enriching uranium to this level,” referring to enrichment levels nearing 60 per cent — alarmingly close to weapons-grade.

Although Iran claims its nuclear efforts are solely for civilian energy, the pace and scale of uranium enrichment have intensified international alarm. Trump has made it clear that military action remains on the table if Iran fails to meet US expectations. That possibility, combined with economic desperation, the authors believe appears to have nudged Tehran toward the negotiating table. According to Ryan Bohl from the RANE Network, Iran is eager to avoid conflict and hopes to “develop a workable framework that will allow extended negotiations.”

However, one core issue remains unresolved: Iran’s insistence on keeping its nuclear program. While full dismantlement may be off the table, US negotiators under Trump might be willing to tolerate a limited, non-militarized program — provided strict verification is in place. “Is the US looking to completely dismantle the Iranian nuclear program, or is it purely a matter of just ensuring verification?” asked Nader Itayim of Argus Media. He continued, “I think Donald Trump has been very clear... no weaponization. Weaponization is that red line.” This stance aligns with Iran’s official claim that it is not pursuing nuclear weapons, offering a potential basis for compromise moving forward.

The article points out another key aspect that casts a shadow on the negotiation, namely the deep mistrust that continues to define relations between the US and Iran. Hardline critics like Israel are voicing strong opposition to the ongoing negotiations and warning against any signs of compromise from the Trump administration. However, Trump made sure to clarify just a few days before the Oman talks that Israel would take the “lead” in any future military action against Iran should Tehran refuse to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions.

By Nazrin Sadigova