Will CSTO send its mission to Armenia-Azerbaijan border? Moscow hastens to stir Yerevan into action

Russia still insists on the deployment of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) mission on the conditional border of Armenia and Azerbaijan, relaying the idea through its MFA's statement. So, just the day before, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said that the timing of the possible deployment of CSTO peacekeepers in the border zone depends on the Armenian side, in fact, shifted all responsibility for what is happening in the region to Yerevan. Like, you don't want to let us in, figure it out yourself, and don't complain.

"We believe that this step will help to stabilize the situation in the region. As for the timing of sending the CSTO mission to the region, I think everything is clear here, everything depends on our Armenian colleagues. As soon as they are ready, we will be able to return to substantive work in connection with the specific modality of the CSTO observation mission. Therefore, it is up to Yerevan," the spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed.

The fact that the Russian side wants to solve this problem as soon as possible was clear back in February from the wording of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in an interview with TV journalist Dmitry Kiselyov. The chief Russian diplomat then confirmed that the proposal to deploy the CSTO mission is still on the table and that the mission can be deployed within one or two days, "if Armenia is interested in it."

Persistent appeals to Yerevan indicate that Russia is extremely determined to implement this idea and will use all diplomatic, and maybe even tougher methods to push Armenia to accept the CSTO mission proposal. The Armenian side understands that the trigger for the emergence of the Russian plan was the EU mission, which turned out to be in the South Caucasus, despite the discontent of not only Baku but also Moscow. Back in January of this year, Sergei Lavrov warned at a press conference on the results of Russian diplomacy in 2022 that the deployment of the EU mission in Armenia could do more harm than good.

"The Armenian side prefers to negotiate with the EU for a civilian observer mission to be deployed there on a long-term basis. This is the border with Azerbaijan, and probably if this mission is deployed without Azerbaijan's consent, it could simply be counterproductive. Instead of building confidence on the border, it could create additional irritants," the Russian minister pointed out in his message to the Armenian authorities.

In short, Moscow and Baku have questioned the civilian character and effectiveness of the mission that has supposedly come to Armenia to monitor the border with Azerbaijan, and as subsequent events have shown, this doubt is justified. Indeed, with the advent of the European mission in the region, military provocations from the Armenian side against the Republic of Azerbaijan have markedly increased. It seems that the Armenian politicians and military leaders have recovered somewhat from the defeat two and a half years ago and, feeling the support of the European "missionaries", have recovered their spirits.

But by and large, this has only resulted in a threat to the security of the entire region and the likelihood of a new, even bigger war. This cannot but affect Moscow's interests, since it has always regarded the South Caucasus as a zone of its influence and is unlikely to cede control over the region to the United States or Europe. And if Moscow has so far delicately urged Yerevan to return under its wing and follow its advice, this does not mean that it is not employing other coercive mechanisms, particularly those of an economic nature. For example, through the EAEU, of which Armenia is a member, it will be possible to sharply reduce the food ration of the entire country. To date, this is one of the important trump cards in Moscow's hands, because Armenians are still feeding from its hands. And, by the way, given the peripeteia with Armenian dairy products, Russia has already turned on its levers of pressure on Yerevan.

On the other hand, Russia's strong argument is the actual betrayal of an ally, as evidenced by the appearance of European gendarmes on Armenian territory and increasingly fearless aggressive rhetoric towards Moscow.

The risk for Armenia of losing primarily material support as a result of its rejection of the CSTO mission is great, yet it is unlikely now to risk losing the 'friendship' of its Western allies, or rather their patronage. So Pashinyan is faced with a difficult choice - to act in favour or to circumvent Russia's interests. But given the political incompetence of the Armenian politician, he will probably try to bargain with Russia for the sake of obtaining certain political bonuses in the Karabakh settlement.

However, Moscow not only patiently observes Armenia's swing between it and the West, but also from time to time reminds Yerevan of the "red lines" that should not be broken. For example, they make it very clear to Yerevan that the issue of international peacekeepers in Karabakh is not worth pushing. Therefore, the Armenian rulers must remember that, firstly, contrary to Armenia's illusions, Moscow will not allow Yerevan to obtain an international mandate authorizing to send UN observers to Karabakh. Secondly, Baku will not allow a UN mission on its territory, because Karabakh is an internationally recognised territory of Azerbaijan, and everything that happens there is its internal affair. This is confirmed de jure by the four UN Security Council resolutions ignored by Armenia.

As for Moscow's plans to deploy a CSTO mission on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, we think that Baku will not object to this matter if Moscow does not act without its consent. Moreover, during the as-yet supposed trilateral meeting (which Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan announced back in March), the Russian Federation is going to hand Armenia an impressive set of claims, and as a consequence, Yerevan will sooner or later have to implement the will of its still sole overlord.