Will Moscow lose military bases in Syria? British Defence Intelligence reports

The Kremlin is seeking to position itself as a partner for Syria's new leadership, yet Moscow's concealment of Bashar al-Assad is hindering negotiations. 

According to the latest update from British Defence Intelligence on X, two Russian merchant vessels, SPARTA II and SPARTA, reportedly departed Tartus, a critical Russian naval base in Syria, on January 28 and 29, 2025, Caliber.Az reports.

The vessels, accompanied by four Russian Federation Navy ships, are believed to be returning evacuated equipment and personnel to alternative locations, signalling potential changes in Russia's military footprint in the region.

This development comes at a time of heightened uncertainty, with ongoing negotiations between Russian government representatives and Syria’s ruling administration, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Despite Russia’s continued efforts to foster ties with HTS, its negotiating position appears increasingly fragile. The strained relationship with Syria’s leadership, especially surrounding the issue of Bashar Al-Assad, has weakened Russia’s leverage, further complicating the situation.

The situation in Syria is shaped by broader geopolitical shifts, particularly Russia’s growing preoccupation with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While maintaining a strategic presence in the eastern Mediterranean remains crucial for Russia, the war in Ukraine has diverted its resources and focus.

As a result, Russia’s ability to influence events in Syria and secure the Assad regime’s stability has been significantly diminished. This evolving dynamic raises questions about the long-term viability of Russia's position in the Middle East and its broader global ambitions.

As Moscow navigates these shifting alliances and priorities, the fate of its bases in Syria and its broader strategic interests in the Mediterranean and Africa hang in the balance. 

By Aghakazim Guliyev