With anti-government protests in Israel, Iran seeks acquisition of nuclear weapon Triggering Palestinians’ sentiments for political goals

Rising tensions between the Iranian regime and Israel have the potential to spiral into a wider conflict if not adequately addressed. There are several reasons for the heightened tensions. Firstly, the Islamist regime in Iran is largely destabilized by huge mass protests overshadowed by unjustifiable police violence against civilians. Unlike earlier protests and uprisings, the current demonstrations exerted immense pressure on the regime in light of the stagnating economy, the collapse of the national currency, deepening drought problems, and continuous mysterious drone attacks on military facilities. Second, the regime desperately attempts to distract attention from the police violence against civilian protests by igniting the situation in Syria through its proxy forces and attacks against Israeli targets in the region.

Moreover, the current anti-government mass protests in Israel appeared to be a good chance for the Tehran regime, as many Western allies cautiously watched the process in Israel while Iran gained momentum for breathing. Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government's plans to severely weaken the judiciary have sparked mass protests and warnings of the potential for extensive economic and social harm from top public figures.

Since January 2023, masses of Israelis have participated in demonstrations against the government's efforts to radically remake the country’s justice system, with estimates pointing to 130,000-160,000 in Tel Aviv and tens of thousands more around the country.

Israel's top allies, namely the US, are worrying about the country's deepening instability and political schism, as Tel-Aviv is the only stronghold of Washington against Iran's destructive proxy warfare in the Middle East. The situation worsened when tensions flared up between the Israeli military and Palestinians amid violent protests.

In the last week of February, Israeli security forces killed ten Palestinians in a raid in the city of Jenin in the West Bank, after which seven people were killed in a terror attack outside a synagogue in a settlement in East Jerusalem.

The reason behind this was the appointment of radicals such as Smotrich, leader of Religious Zionism, and Jewish Power party head Itamar Ben-Gvir to key ministerial posts, which has emboldened the radical right and West Bank settlers.

 Also, as punitive measures against the recent rocket attacks from the Gaza strip, the Israeli government sealed off the family homes of Palestinians before deporting some of them from the area.

Some argue that the recent violent methods of Palestinian resistance in the Gaza strip against Israeli forces may be linked to Iran's efforts to destabilize the fragile security and increase its leverage. As the last four decades have shown, the Iranian regime’s modus operandi is anchored in prioritizing asymmetrical warfare and deploying its proxies — such as Hezbollah, Palestinian Jihad, the Houthis and the Iraqi Shiite militia groups — in foreign territories to attack its rivals.

As a countermeasure, Israel periodically conducts secret operations on Iranian soil to prevent possible terror attacks alongside its borders and crack down on Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs. For example, In April 2021, Iran blamed Israel and vowed revenge for an explosion at its largest uranium enrichment facility in Natanz, which it said caused significant damage to its centrifuges. Hence, it was one of those deadly attack series against Iranian military targets within the country followed by a few more throughout 2022.

Nevertheless, the newly heated standoff vows to turn more violent and destructive in light of reports that Iran’s nuclear program is closer than ever to producing weapons-grade material and the Iranian leaders are not cooperating with the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. Although Iran keeps nuclear facilities shut for inspection, the accurate assessment suggests that Iran's acceleration of its advanced centrifuge deployments and uncertainties will likely grow in the coming months.

With such reports from independent sources and the UN official bodies, the new far-right government in Israel may tighten its grip on the Tehran regime more, with the risks of spiralling into a wider conflict between two prominent regional actors. As for Iran, it will likely further trigger anti-Israeli sentiments using proxy forces, particularly among Palestinians, while pushing efforts for a nuclear weapon as the only viable future deterrence force to preserve the existence of the Islamist regime. However, with deep political schism and the crisis looming in Israel, it is arguable how harshly Israeli security forces could conduct another deadly attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.