Yerevan's relentless blackmail brings Russia-Armenia's crumbling bromance to an end

The Armenian leadership, emboldened due to the support of its new patrons in the West, in particular France, is persistently running into conflict with Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). After the recent statement made by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that Armenia had frozen its participation in the military bloc, Moscow, as expected, demanded clarification from Yerevan. In response, Pashinyan threatened to legally freeze Armenia’s membership in the CSTO if the organisation does not fulfill its “obligations”.

“Armenia has de facto frozen its activity in the CSTO, and if it does not receive an answer to the question about the CSTO’s area of responsibility towards the Republic of Armenia, it will freeze it de jure,” the Armenian prime minister said at a meeting of the Armenian National Assembly. He reminded that Armenia has not had a permanent representative in the CSTO for a year and has not participated in the CSTO’s events for a long time.

As it turned out, the issue of determining the CSTO’s area of responsibility towards Armenia is not the only fact of interest to the Armenian side. Pashinyan’s other action is more likely to cause a smile. Pashinyan stated that “Armenia did not expect military assistance from the CSTO, but wanted the CSTO to outline its political and diplomatic position”.

“Our expectations from the CSTO have never primarily concerned military intervention. This is an important point. We were not trying to drag the CSTO into a war and put our partners in a difficult position. We asked for a political and diplomatic position on the fact of aggression against the Armenian territory. We have always acted in accordance with the CSTO’s documents,” the prime minister lied.

The questions and claims of the Armenian side addressed to the CSTO are related to Russia. However, the Russian military-political leadership made it clear that as the Armenian borders were not violated, and the war was on the Azerbaijani territory, no help should be expected. Afterwards, Yerevan questioned the CSTO’s effectiveness, and then, in a consistent manner, demonstratively showed dissatisfaction with being part of it. Later, Pashinyan stated in September 2022 that “if Russia and other allies do not begin to fulfill their obligations, Armenia may withdraw from the CSTO”. By the way, during that period Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan voiced complaints due to Yerevan’s expectations for “military and military-political assistance from the CSTO, but does not receive it”.

So the Armenian prime minister is blatantly lying, saying that Armenia did not expect military support from the CSTO. Armenia hoped that the CSTO would intervene and be drawn into the conflict with Azerbaijan, but it failed. Afterwards, Yerevan was looking for “defenders” in the West and found France.

As for the Armenian adventure regarding determining the CSTO’s area of responsibility towards Armenia, this is also Yerevan’s blackmail to justify its destructive steps, as well as those within the military bloc. This question has been recently discussed in Yerevan by President of the Armenian National Assembly Alen Simonyan, reminding that, supposedly, Armenia is waiting for an answer to whether the CSTO recognises the borders of Armenia, within which the country joined the organisation.

Proceeding from the brazen statements voiced by the Armenian leadership against the Russian Federation and the CSTO, theoretically, the issue of Armenia’s withdrawal from the CSTO has most likely already been resolved in Paris and approved by Brussels. Armenia, as an executor of the West’s orders, began to implement this directive.

In this regard, more questions arise for Moscow, which is still making only statements, without resorting to more radical measures towards its completely insolent vassal. Perhaps Russia does not see a real threat from Yerevan’s shifting to the West as formally Armenia is still a CSTO member and has not officially announced its withdrawal from the military bloc. However, it would be surprising if Moscow discounted Yerevan’s frivolity. Even though Russia has directed all its strength to the war with Ukraine, it is unlikely ready to let Armenia go or let France’s side penetrate the region.

Russian journalist, author of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin Kirill Krivosheev expressed his opinion about Russia's further steps for Caliber.Az.  

The Russian expert said that the issue of Armenia’s withdrawal from the CSTO has not been resolved.

“Armenia can be a member of the CSTO, just as Ukraine was in the CIS once. The flag is there, there is a chair for the representative, but the representative himself is not there. A brilliant example - Georgia in the 3+3 format can be mentioned. What will Moscow do to counteract Armenia’s shifting to the West? This is a very important question. I ask myself this question. It seems that Russia has no levers of pressure on Armenia except economic ones. It is possible to detain drivers in Upper Lars, to find vinegar in Jermuk, to raise prices for gas and electricity. However, this is counterproductive because it will destroy the remaining Russian supporters in Armenia. Moscow cannot change power in Armenia. There are no candidates,” he noted.

In other words, it turns out that Armenia will continue blackmailing the Russian Federation and the CSTO by shifting to the West.

However, as Krivosheev pointed out, Armenia must not leave the CSTO to continue the blackmail.

“When Armenia withdraws, there will be nothing to blackmail with. The most common comparison of relations between Armenia and Russia is a falling apart marriage. Spouses can live separately for years, but not file for divorce. They can do this. This often happens. Armenia’s goal is an external guarantee of its integrity rather than France. Armenia is looking for someone who can give these guarantees. Russia obviously cannot do that. France can’t do either, but at least it gives hope. Armenia needs to have an external partner who, in case of another escalation on the border, will say on the international platform that ‘this is aggression. This is the occupation of the Armenian territory’. France is capable of this. It is not a military ally, but rather a lawyer. Here the interests of Armenia and France coincide,” he noted.

“In general, as for Armenia, Russia still thinks about its hopelessness. The Russian authorities do not see a visible threat yet. Russia has always had a disdainful attitude towards Western projects in the region. What will France do? There is a base, there are border guards [at least on the border with Türkiye and Iran]. There are also some levers of influence. Russia hopes that if it doesn’t do anything sharply, the problem will be resolved itself,” he added.

In conclusion, until Moscow begins to influence Yerevan by using its existing tools of pressure, Armenia will not stop its policy of blackmail towards Russia. Proceeding from history, Armenia understands only the language of force, rather than diplomacy. Otherwise, Yerevan will present one more “surprise” to Russia.