"Belarus and Armenia cannot have any common interests!"
Caliber.Az interview with Valery Karbalevich
INTERVIEWS 29 November 2022 - 11:01
Matanat Nasibova Caliber.Az |
Caliber.Az had an interview with Valery Karbalevich, a Belarusian political scientist and candidate for historical science.
- Valery Ivanovich, how would you assess the statement of President Lukashenko at the last CSTO summit in Yerevan? In particular, his statements that "if Russia collapses, then we will be rightfully buried under the rubble". Is the situation so hopeless for Russia?
- I believe Lukashenko meant first of all himself since he has linked his political fate to that of Russia and Putin. And as a consequence, Belarus was the only state that supported Russia in the war against Ukraine. So, yes, if Russia is defeated in the war, the fate of Lukashenko's political regime would be uncertain.
As for the collapse of Russia, it is difficult to talk about it, but it is already obvious that Russia is degrading and being thrown out of the process of economic globalisation, and its technological gap with the West and China is increasing. Accordingly, the country's geopolitical weight will continue to fall, regardless of how the war in Ukraine ends. And this can be asserted quite definitely.
- Has Russia lost the war with Ukraine at the global level?
- If we talk not so much about the war as about the strategic conflict between Russia and the West, it has lost. If we talk directly about the war, then today we see a situation of strategic balance. None of the sides can achieve a decisive victory, the situation is frozen, and for quite a long time, I think. It is difficult to predict further, given that there is a war of attrition, and in this state of affairs it is not quite clear which side will be the first to fail.
- Let's return to the CSTO summit. What conclusions did Moscow draw from its results?
- If Russia drew any conclusions at all, it is about the fact that the CSTO is on the verge of a crisis. On the other hand, today Russia is experiencing a decrease in its geopolitical role, which is evident in the post-Soviet space. One example of this is the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and the confrontation between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The problem is that the CSTO emerged because its member states were focused on the fact that Russia could be a source of assistance and military, economic and political support. And Russia has played this role to a large extent. For example, the Russian Federation sold arms to CSTO countries on favorable terms, but today it is turning into a source of problems and threats. Starting a war with Ukraine, Putin explained it by saying that the collapse of the USSR was unfair, that the borders that were established as a result of the collapse of the Union were unfair, and that Russia has every moral and political right to revise these borders. It seems to me, for example, that the leadership of Kazakhstan, listening to such rhetoric, probably does not feel their country is safe, given the fairly large Russian-speaking population living there. Accordingly, the main reason for the crisis within the CSTO is that Russia, rather than a source of support, is no longer a problem factor. If Russia is still able to think rationally, it should understand this important nuance itself.
- Can a crisis in the CSTO lead to its dissolution?
- I do not think it will come to dissolution. Rather, there will be an evolution towards the CIS.
The CIS is a club where presidents meet once or twice a year, discuss some issues, then come out to journalists, take pictures and that's the end of their mission. Tell me, where else can the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan meet? At the CIS summit. So the evolution of the CSTO toward the CIS is a more realistic option than the dissolution of this bloc.
- How did you feel about the fact that as a result of the CSTO summit many different documents were adopted in Yerevan, but none against Azerbaijan?
- This is quite understandable. What common interests can Belarus and Kyrgyzstan have with Armenia, say, in terms of defenсe, and external threats? None at all. The only thing that unites these states is the demonstration of loyalty to Russia, that's all. Moscow does not want to spoil relations with Baku for the sake of Yerevan, because Azerbaijan is the leading state in the region, more influential, and richer, so it does not have unambiguous support for Armenia. Although, it is certainly in Russia's interests to maintain relations with both South Caucasian countries to sell weapons, for example. For example, it is much more important for Belarus to maintain relations with Azerbaijan than with Armenia, not only economically, but also at the level of personal contact between the presidents. The other members of the CSTO - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan - are Muslim states, and mentally and ideologically Azerbaijan is closer to them as a Muslim country than Christian Armenia. Such nuances are important in the East. These factors explain the indifferent attitude towards Armenia within the CSTO.
- Do you share the opinion that Pashinyan's demarche in Yerevan will not bring Armenia the desired results?
- Pashinyan's demarche was a blackmail attempt, counting on the support of CSTO member-states and at the same time it was aimed at the internal audience, so to say, look how firmly I defend the interests of Armenia and am ready even for a conflict with my allies. However, I also believe that such demarches will not affect the degree of Russia's support and the situation in general.
- Is it worth speaking of Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO?
- I think Armenia has nowhere to go but CSTO, as it has no other options. Regardless of who is at the helm of the state in Armenia, the country will be forced to look up to Russia.
- Will Pashinyan agree to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan?
- It is hard to say. Although, given that the negotiation process is moving forward, sooner or later some compromise will surely be found.
Caliber.Az
1
|
Iran re-evaluating its ties with Azerbaijan, Armenia Baku - more important, honest partner than Yerevan
25 April 2024 - 12:00
|
2
|
Armenia returns four villages to Azerbaijan, paving the way for peace in the South Caucasus Landmark accord
23 April 2024 - 09:14
|
3
|
Mark Rutte seeks Türkiye's backing for new job A new pair of hands
24 April 2024 - 16:55
|
4
|
"Peoples of South Caucasus should resolve their differences independently" Foreign analysts on Caliber.Az
24 April 2024 - 17:40
|
5
|
Armenian PM's Moscow visit sparks speculation on bilateral relations Dilemma between East, West
23 April 2024 - 11:19
|
US Navy sells two aircraft carriers for just penny each
26 April 2024 - 07:03
Chinese metal tycoon’s heir buys $62 million Singapore mansion
26 April 2024 - 05:04
Any light at end of tunnel for China’s Hong Kong?
26 April 2024 - 03:05
US dealing with rare bifurcation of economy
26 April 2024 - 01:03
One international destination everyone wants to go to this summer
25 April 2024 - 23:00
Azerbaijani leader's plane makes its maiden voyage from Fuzuli to Berlin
25 April 2024 - 20:59
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan forge closer ties during high-level meetings
PHOTO/VIDEO25 April 2024 - 20:53
Russia’s Putin to visit China
25 April 2024 - 20:45
Azerbaijani tourism agency granted membership in Global Sustainable Tourism Council
25 April 2024 - 20:37
Azerbaijani parliament condemns EP's biased resolution on human rights
25 April 2024 - 20:25
Putin calls on large businesses to traditionally take part in SPIEF 2024
25 April 2024 - 20:19
Iranian defense minister heads to Astana for SCO defense ministers' meeting
25 April 2024 - 19:59
Türkiye neutralises over 800 terrorists since early 2024
VIDEO25 April 2024 - 19:43
European Parliament urges member states not to consider Russian elections legitimate
25 April 2024 - 19:24
How Iran covers up damage from Israel’s strikes?
PHOTO25 April 2024 - 19:05
Palestinians retrieve 392 bodies from 3 mass graves in Gaza’s Khan Younis
25 April 2024 - 18:46
Iran to launch missiles anywhere in Israel if necessary, general warns
25 April 2024 - 18:27
Twenty border markers installed between Azerbaijan & Armenia
Delimitation progress25 April 2024 - 18:18
Dozens detained at protests in Armenia
25 April 2024 - 18:08
Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan expanding cooperation in space industry
25 April 2024 - 17:49
Controversial Nobel Peace Prize nominee Vardanyan faces int’l scrutiny & opposition
A closer look at actions contrary to peace & humanitarian efforts25 April 2024 - 17:31
Iran builds up military power by showing off advanced Bavar-373 air defence system
PHOTO25 April 2024 - 17:15
Presidents of Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan visit Fuzuli, Aghdam cities
PHOTO25 April 2024 - 17:05
Lukashenko blames opposition and NATO: They want to take a district in Brest region by force
25 April 2024 - 17:00
Top Israeli, Egyptian officials secretly meet to discuss possible Rafah invasion
25 April 2024 - 16:41
Energy leading to peace
Proceeding from Azerbaijani President’s speech in ADA25 April 2024 - 16:22
“It would be a big mistake if Armenia used the support gained from the EU against Azerbaijan”
Amashov’s impromptu interview with Ambassador Sharp25 April 2024 - 16:16
Armenian Parliament speaker says legitimate border crucial for peace with Azerbaijan
25 April 2024 - 16:07
New mass grave discovered in Khojaly
Investigation underway / PHOTO25 April 2024 - 15:51
Port of Baku: the Eurasian trade hub working to expand and accelerate growth
Article by Euronews / VIDEO25 April 2024 - 15:39
Hybrid warfare being waged against Armenia, official says
25 April 2024 - 15:24
Azerbaijani police discover cache of weapons in Khankendi, linked to Armenian forces
25 April 2024 - 14:58
Zakharova slams Armenian media for distorting Russian leadership’s statements on Baku-Yerevan ties
25 April 2024 - 14:44
Baku, Budapest cement economic ties, sign protocol
25 April 2024 - 14:27
Yerevan ready to discuss gas purchase with Baku – Armenian Speaker
UPDATED25 April 2024 - 14:15
Azerbaijan set to take bold steps vis-à-vis climate change - minister
25 April 2024 - 14:09
Official: Hamas would lay down its weapons if two-state solution implemented
25 April 2024 - 13:54
Türkiye captures nearly 3,000 Islamic State suspects in 10 months
VIDEO25 April 2024 - 13:40
Blinken tours China to promote some ties
25 April 2024 - 13:26
Azerbaijani presidential aide showcases Fuzuli's rebirth in stirring social media video
25 April 2024 - 13:15