ISW: Russian forces may launch or intensify offensive operations in new directions

Russian forces may choose to launch or intensify offensive operations in new directions, but these operations would likely produce few tangible results as the overall Russian spring offensive continues to near culmination.

The tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut appears to be slowing amid Western reporting that Russian forces may be attempting to launch offensives in other directions, Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russian forces made additional marginal advances in southern Bakhmut, and Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks on the southwestern and northwestern outskirts of the city on March 21 and 22, the report adds.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 22 that Russian forces’ offensive potential in the Bakhmut area is declining, and Ukrainian officials have previously reported fewer combat clashes in the city itself in recent days.

US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated on March 21 that Russian and Ukrainian forces are continuing to prioritize operations around Bakhmut and that Russian forces might try to conduct another offensive, possibly in many different directions.

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defence (UK MoD) assessed that Russian forces may be losing momentum in the Bakhmut area because the Russian MoD is relocating units to other directions.

Russian forces are currently increasing the tempo of their offensive operations around Avdiivka aiming to encircle the settlement, and it is possible that Russian forces are doing so at the expense of their operations around Bakhmut and the stalled offensive around Vuhledar.

Russian personnel of the 136th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) previously stated that they were deploying to the Vuhledar area to conduct assaults, but a Russian military blogger claimed on March 21 that elements of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade are operating in the Avdiivka direction.

This apparent deployment change - if it is not a result of Russian misreporting - possibly indicates that Russian forces prioritised the intensification of operations around Avdiivka over restarting the offensive on Vuhledar.

Russian forces appear to be drawing more combat power to the Avdiivka area which may allow them to increase their rate of advance, although there were no confirmed Russian advances in the area on March 22. ISW continues to assess that Russian advances may prompt Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Bakhmut and/or Avdiivka although neither appears likely at this time.

ISW has still not observed evidence of the commitment of the Russian 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army (Western Military District) despite reports that it had reconstituted in Belarus and deployed to Luhansk.

“The Russians may commit this unit to one or more offensives already underway or to a new offensive undertaking. The commitment of this division’s two or three motorized rifle regiments is unlikely to achieve operationally decisive effects, however, given the failure of larger formations to do so,” ISW reports.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted a limited drone and missile strike campaign in Ukraine overnight on March 21-22, indicating that Russian forces continue struggling with precision missile shortages.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) intends to increase the size of Russia’s air defence forces at a Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) collegium on March 22.

Shoigu likely signaled to Japan that it should not become more engaged in supporting Ukraine by announcing the deployment of an anti-shipping missile system on one of the Kuril Islands.

Shoigu walked away and refused to answer a question about how soon to expect peace in Ukraine.

The tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut appears to be slowing amid Western reporting that Russian forces may be attempting to launch offensives in other directions.

Russian forces may be deploying T-54/55 tanks from storage to Ukraine to compensate for significant armored vehicle losses.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces made marginal territorial gains within Bakhmut and continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut and on the outskirts of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian officials stated that Ukrainian forces continue to clear an area on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.

The Kremlin continued hybrid reserve callup and crypto mobilization campaigns to recruit Russians for contract service.

Russian officials and occupation authorities continued to advocate for legislative changes in an effort to further legitimize the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.