Coming months to be decisive for Baku-Yerevan peace deal
Russian pundit on Caliber.Az
INTERVIEWS 10 May 2023 - 18:09
Matanat Nasibova Caliber.Az |
Caliber.Az presents an interview with Russian pundit and publicist Ruslan Safarov.
- In your opinion, will the forthcoming meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers in Moscow be effective? Is progress possible on the Russian negotiation track?
- Much will depend on the outcome of Prime Minister Pashinyan's visit to Moscow. The Kremlin sees an Armenian "double-dealing" with NATO, and the reception may be cool. In short, Moscow has long outlined its position: the delimitation of borders according to the maps of the late 1980s (Alma-Ata principle), which means the recognition of Karabakh by Armenia as part of Azerbaijan, and the Armenian-Iranian border (and, consequently, control over the Zangazur corridor) under the supervision of Russia.
For Yerevan, this is comparable to the Roman principle “woe to the vanquished”, since this peace closes the “miatsum” page of the country's history, and even increases its dependence on Moscow. Official Baku understands all this, which is why the differences in settlement issues with Moscow are minimal.
- Brussels also demonstrates activity in the negotiations between Baku and Yerevan. What does the leaders' meeting in Brussels promise this weekend?
- Even Pashinyan is already dissatisfied with the EU mission in Armenia, realizing that this is another crossed-out line in the list of Armenian hopes for third forces. The European Union needs Azerbaijan's oil and gas. Armenia is an object through which Azerbaijan can be crushed. So, frankly, the expectations from the new meeting are not so great.
Speaking of venues, it is important not to lose sight of the course of the diplomatic game itself. Yerevan has tried all possible mediator forces. The answer is almost the same everywhere: Moscow outlined its positions in November 2020, and the United States is still saving Armenia, seeing it as the key to a big war in the region (whether this key is useful will become clear during the second half of this year), the European Union is not ready to dive deep into the conflict – it much prefers to agree with Baku on resources. Shortly, Yerevan hopes only for a chance, which can only appear during a big war in the region.
- Still, in what terms, in your opinion, is it possible to conclude a peace agreement, given the unpreparedness of Armenia for this?
- I think the coming months will be decisive. There are several factors that can give Armenia a little hope. If they do not play, then peace will finally be signed. In any case, I can designate the most distant date for the end of the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement: December 2025. After this date, a peace treaty will no longer be a matter of principle for Azerbaijan - the problem will be solved by itself.
- With what instructions do you think Pashinyan will return from Moscow this time?
- I don’t think that he was given earlier or will be given “instructions” this time in Moscow. Pashinyan is not a Russian project, he and the Kremlin have confirmed it in deeds. As the leader of an allied state, Russia has many questions for him: above all, over the Armenian "two chairs". This was tolerable for Moscow, but I will note again until Yerevan started openly flirting with NATO. In the current conditions, these are hardly acceptable manoeuvres for Russia.
Caliber.Az
1
|
20 points. What did Armenia, the EU and the US agree on in Brussels? Sensational details on Caliber.Az
17 April 2024 - 11:01
|
2
|
Caliber.Az to reveal sensational details of "Brussels meeting" Important announcement
16 April 2024 - 12:09
|
3
|
Iran seeks international backing following missile strikes on Israel Raisi calls Russia & Qatari leaders amid tension
17 April 2024 - 16:56
|
4
|
Serbian President seeks Azerbaijani support amid Western pressures Insights from Political Scientist Stevan Gajić
17 April 2024 - 13:10
|
5
|
French ambassador recalled from Azerbaijan amidst bilateral strain Macron admits defeat
17 April 2024 - 15:19
|
This lava tube in Saudi Arabia - human refuge for 7,000 years
19 April 2024 - 07:03
Luxury bargain hunters head to Japan as weak Yen brings big discounts
19 April 2024 - 05:04
Two countries in Europe powered by 100% renewable energy as wind capacity soars
19 April 2024 - 03:05
Farewell to metals in industry forever
19 April 2024 - 01:03
Poland to join European Sky Shield scheme, following thaw with Berlin
18 April 2024 - 23:00
UN chief sees risk of full-scale conflict in Middle East
18 April 2024 - 21:16
Azerbaijan, Austria discuss areas of potential cooperation
PHOTO18 April 2024 - 21:04
Azerbaijan discusses partnership opportunities with CICA at COP29
PHOTO18 April 2024 - 20:53
Russian Army deploys new version of BM-27 Uragan MLRS Rocket Launcher in Ukraine
18 April 2024 - 20:40
Europe moves forward with major hydrogen projects
18 April 2024 - 20:27
US, Britain issue new sanctions on Iran in response to Tehran's attack on Israel
18 April 2024 - 20:13
Türkiye's Togg starts working on new B-SUV model
18 April 2024 - 19:59
US commends Azerbaijani deminers, pledges support for complete demining of lands
18 April 2024 - 19:46
Georgian opposition announces “full mobilization”
18 April 2024 - 19:32
Azerbaijan, Austria discuss implementation of joint industrial projects
18 April 2024 - 19:18
Israeli forces withdraw from area of Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza
18 April 2024 - 19:04
Azerbaijani parliament speaker: France eyes to continue colonialism policy in South Caucasus
18 April 2024 - 18:49
Iran warns it knows where Israel's nuclear sites
"Our hands - on trigger"18 April 2024 - 18:34
Congress Committee’s rep: New Caledonia expresses gratitude to Azerbaijan
18 April 2024 - 18:19
Historian: France trying to destroy culture of Kanak people
18 April 2024 - 18:04
Iran oil exports hit six-year high as West prepares sanctions
18 April 2024 - 17:49
Russia, Azerbaijan announce withdrawal of peacekeepers from Karabakh
Signaling a new phase in post-conflict dynamics18 April 2024 - 17:46
What to expect from Russia’s withdrawal from Karabakh?
Looking for new horizons18 April 2024 - 17:41
Baku Initiative Group: Azerbaijan fighting against colonialism, neo-colonialism
18 April 2024 - 17:34
Azerbaijan holding conference with New Caledonian Congress reps
18 April 2024 - 17:19
Lies and provocation of Iran's ambassador to Armenia
We have something to remind him18 April 2024 - 17:13
Miscalculation leads to escalation in clash between Israel, Iran
18 April 2024 - 17:04
EU's rep voices grave concerns over escalating tensions between Israel, Iran
18 April 2024 - 16:49
India kicks out Türkiye from Navy’s shipping project
18 April 2024 - 16:34
Azerbaijani ambassador: Armenia uses fake information as evidence in public court hearings
18 April 2024 - 16:19
Azerbaijani police officers find weapons, ammunition in Zangilan
PHOTO18 April 2024 - 16:04
Azerbaijani, New Caledonian parliaments sign memorandum of cooperation
18 April 2024 - 15:49
MFA: Russia exerts many efforts to resolve Azerbaijan-Armenia relations
18 April 2024 - 15:34
A blow-by-blow fact
Russian peacekeepers' mission accomplished18 April 2024 - 15:12
Azerbaijani energy minister invited to US for UN General Assembly discussions
18 April 2024 - 15:03
Baku Initiative Group facilitates Azerbaijan-New Caledonia cooperation
Congress chair applauds efforts18 April 2024 - 14:49
Azerbaijan to take steps to deal with Armenian vandalism at Khudavang Monastery
18 April 2024 - 14:35
"Green" ambitions: Azerbaijan's push for hydrogen production
Caliber.Az review18 April 2024 - 14:31
SpaceX launches 23 Starlink satellites from Florida
18 April 2024 - 14:21
Bashlibel tragedy survivors manage to break out of Armenian army siege only after 113 days
18 April 2024 - 14:16