Ukraine analysts lash out at Pashinyan for remarks about war impact on Armenia
Sign of Yerevan's despair

INTERVIEWS  17 May 2023 - 10:51

On May 11, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held a meeting of the ruling faction's initiative group, where he made a number of interesting statements. His speech to his party colleagues in full glory reveals the game of Yerevan in the political field. Reporting on his trip to Moscow to celebrate Victory Day, the prime minister, in particular, stressed that "he does not even want to imagine what could happen to Armenia if Russia fails and loses in Ukraine". According to the Armenian newspaper Hraparak, Pashinyan told the party members that in this case "Armenia is waiting for a repetition of the events of a century ago and the loss of independence". It is interesting what do Ukrainians think about Pashinyan's ruse?

This is what Ukrainian international expert, Doctor of Political Sciences Petro Oleshchuk noted in this regard in an interview with Caliber.Az.

According to the political scientist, Kyiv has yet to respond officially to Pashinyan's statement because it is only known through the Armenian press - it has not been heard at the official level.

"At the same time, everyone understands that Armenia is officially an ally of Russia, which is proved by the visit of its leader to Moscow for a military parade. There Pashinyan turned out to be one of the few heads of state who agreed to be next to Putin, who is already in the status of a suspect for committing genocide on Ukrainian soil," Oleshchuk stressed.

Thus, he believes, the meaning of Pashinyan's statements is clear - he characterises Armenia's current policy.

"This shows what a deep impasse those countries that tried to build profitable relations with Russia found themselves in - the story ends critically and negatively for them. In particular, Armenia has made itself a hostage of relations with Russia. The whole world wants Moscow to lose and Yerevan is forced to wish it victory. Such obsequiousness speaks for itself. And it seems to me that this is a situation from which it will be difficult for Armenia to find some decent way out," the political scientist stressed.

In general, he believes that the Kremlin is losing its clout in the post-Soviet space, as evidenced by the Russian Foreign Ministry's outraged reaction to the publication of an article by the head of Ukraine's presidential office, Andriy Yermak, in Azerbaijani and Uzbek media outlets.

"This article points out quite obvious things - that Russia continues to behave in the post-Soviet space as a coloniser and in relations with the CIS countries implements such a policy as if these countries are still part of the Russian colonial empire. It is clear that this caused a violent reaction from Moscow, and the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Zakharova even tried to refute such allegations, assuring that Moscow considers all neighbouring countries as full-fledged partners. However, everyone knows that this is not the case at all," the Ukrainian expert emphasises.

The defeat of Russia in Ukraine, he is sure, will lead to the collapse of the Russian colonial policy, and nearby countries that do not realise this may also be covered by a "big blast wave".

"Such a statement by Pashinyan is at least hypocritical and short-sighted, because Yerevan may need to turn to the West again tomorrow. And such behaviour of the head of the country, when he tries to enlist the support of politicians in Europe and the United States and at the same time opposes this very Western policy, is more than contradictory. The desire to sit on two chairs may end with the fact that Armenia will generally find itself without acceptable options for itself and its future," Oleshchuk said.

Ukrainian military expert and press officer of the first special purpose brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Taras Berezovets, noted in an interview with Caliber.Az that even Pashinyan's arrival in Moscow on May 9 caused a lot of speculation because initially it was not planned for Armenian representatives to participate in the Victory Day celebration. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry expressed its attitude to this, calling such a step by all countries noted on this occasion in Moscow "unfriendly".

"Pashinyan, in fact, is now cornered and believes that while all attention is focused on the war in Ukraine, no one cares about his political games. And it's time for Azerbaijan and Turkey to finalize a peace treaty. It is clear that Russia is playing its dirty game in the South Caucasus – having peacekeepers in Karabakh, but not doing anything to improve the situation. So Pashinyan is manoeuvring right up to a frank shying away towards the West, but then he takes a step in the opposite direction. This is a step of desperation, an internal unstable situation where this country's prime minister is under pressure from Armenian nationalists. In my opinion, he will continue to act this way, constantly manoeuvring and hoping that he will not lose the support of both. However, all other actions of this kind will only lead to a complication in relations with Ukraine. Moreover, the West is also monitoring the situation and no matter how it comes to sanctions that may be imposed on Armenia. As, in fact, with regard to Georgia, which has opened a visa-free communication with the Russian Federation," Berezovets said.

In conversation with Caliber.Az, Director of the Ukrainian Middle Eastern Studies Centre Igor Semivolos noted that the ability of a politician to foresee different scenarios and plan his actions in advance was and remains one of the most in demand.

"In the Ukrainian General Staff, for example, when planning military operations, they start from the most conservative scenario, and then other options are offered. That is, when a politician says that he cannot imagine that Russia can lose the war, he is devoid of either imagination or strategic thinking, or he cannot face the truth and prefers to hide his head in the sand," the Ukrainian political scientist noted.

And for Pashinyan's case, according to him, such "ostrich" behaviour is practically the norm.

"In the end, I well remember his discussion with Azerbaijani President Aliyev on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, where his remark about Armenians' right to occupy part of Azerbaijani territory as a result of the First Karabakh War victory was, to put it mildly, reckless. Pashinyan's problem is largely the problem of Armenia itself, which is stuck in time and space and has made a losing bet..." Semivolos believes.

Caliber.Az