Russian pundit: For Armenia, Karabakh is gone forever
    Caliber.Az conversation with Igor Korotchenko

    INTERVIEWS  15 December 2023 - 11:37

    Vadim Mansurov
    Caliber.Az

    Caliber.Az had an interview with Igor Korotchenko, Director General of Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies, Russian military expert.

    - What is your view on the Baku-Yerevan joint statement issued on December 7? Can we finally expect the signing of a peace treaty as soon as possible?

    - As a matter of fact, we can consider it as a breakthrough, because up to now all the negotiations have been conducted exclusively with the support of mediators and on foreign platforms. Here we have direct agreements and a clear success. These are the plus points. But one thing remains to be seen: will Armenia give up its basic principle, which it has tried to include in the agreement for years, namely to mention the Karabakh Armenians separately? Azerbaijan's response to this is a reasonable rejection of the suggestion that we should then also include in the text a clause on the 300,000 Azerbaijanis who were forcibly expelled from the territory of Armenia. And here we have a collision: Armenia will not agree to such a suggestion, and neither will Azerbaijan, because the position of official Baku is that all these people are citizens of the country and the issue itself is an internal Azerbaijani matter. There is therefore a risk of such a stalemate in the negotiations.

    I believe that a lot depends on Pashinyan's position, and if Yerevan, based on the obvious realpolitik, refuses this condition, the agreement may be signed. If we rely on optimistic forecasts that the signing may take place before the end of the year, then Aliyev and Pashinyan could be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. And seriously, nothing, of course, prevents the signing of the agreement next year as well, the main thing is that this fact should be fulfilled.

    Again, I would like to note that the main stumbling block, in my opinion, is Yerevan's position. How far Pashinyan can take this step, based on the domestic situation and the balance within the ruling elites, weighing the risks and real threats of possible destabilisation, is an important question. Although, on the other hand, we can see that Pashinyan is very firmly in control of the mechanism of power, and the attempts of the opposition or any other forces to organise his violent removal have failed. Even when Karabakh came completely under the control of Azerbaijan.

    However, Pashinyan's statement that he is ready to hold early parliamentary elections if necessary most likely points to the following possible scenario: the prime minister will finally give up on the preconditions of the agreement and sign the deal, while at the same time announce the holding of snap elections - a referendum on confidence in the country's government. This will allow him to take the burden of responsibility off himself and shift the decision to the public. We shall see how the future situation develops. With Nikol Vovayevich's shrewdness and cunning, anything is possible.

    I believe that he still proceeds from the realities, as they say, of the situation "on the ground". No matter how much he is criticised in the country, he understands that further persistence in signing the agreement will not give him anything. Because Karabakh is gone for Armenia forever, Armenians no longer have any opportunities to speculate on this issue.

    - Did you notice that on the occasion of the joint statement Azerbaijan and Armenia were also congratulated by the countries, some of which had recently slowed down the negotiations?

    - I think this is a certain slyness of the USA, France, European Union. Baku's peace treaty with Yerevan deprives the West of any leverage over Azerbaijan. And I think that the West is very interested in not signing it, although it says otherwise in words. Recently, for example, it was decided to increase the contingent of the EU observation mission in Armenia - which should be interpreted as a hostile action against Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia. Because the backbone of this mission is made up of cadre intelligence officers of European countries under diplomatic cover. First of all, it is French Foreign Intelligence DGSE, German Foreign Intelligence BND and other intelligence services. Naturally, all of them are not interested in stabilisation and peace in the South Caucasus.

    - And Russia?

    - Russia is a different story. Moscow is interested in the smooth functioning of transport corridors because it considers them an important element for the formation of peace in the South Caucasus. A transport corridor that will run through Azerbaijan and Iran will solve many important logistical problems.

    Russia is also determined to strengthen relations with Georgia because it is interested in establishing full-fledged peace in the region.

    - And what about the Zangezur corridor? Will it be possible to sell this route through Armenia?

    - The thing is that Armenia may turn out to be unnecessary, as Azerbaijan has already completed its part of the transit corridor through Iran. Because, with its characteristic tenacity and stubbornness, it presents its version of the "Crossroads of Peace", a global stalemate where nobody can use logistics or roads. This project has no prospects because the lack of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan prevents the restoration of relations between Armenia and Türkiye. All investors see and understand this. Therefore, if Pashinyan does not manage to use the opportunity he has been given, Armenia will find itself in a difficult situation. Pashinyan has driven himself into a dead end, and a peace treaty with Azerbaijan is the only way out of this economic and political dead end for him.

    - What will happen next to Armenian-Russian relations?

    - Relations between Armenia and Russia can now be qualified as "strained and cool". Pashinyan is turning towards the West, and arms purchases from NATO countries have begun. In all likelihood, this policy of Yerevan will continue.

    However, for now, Pashinyan will not make any sharp moves that could irritate Moscow, but he will distance himself from any political formats and meetings within the CIS and CSTO. I think Yerevan will put on pause everything except the economy.

    Caliber.Az

    Subscribe to our Telegram channel


Read also

Armenia: A pawn of external influence in the South Caucasus Pundit assesses destabilizing factors in the region

18 July 2024 - 15:10

Macron's political tightrope: Is France heading towards power paralysis? Foreign analysts' opinions

18 July 2024 - 11:21

Trump-Biden showdown intensifies in wake of assassination plot speculations US analysts delve into escalating rivalry

18 July 2024 - 12:11

UK's new Labour government eyes closer ties with Azerbaijan Expert insight

16 July 2024 - 09:48

Belarus maintains diplomatic composure amid allegations from Yerevan Expert insights

15 July 2024 - 14:05

Armenia's NATO engagement draws Moscow's ire A shift towards Western estrangement?

15 July 2024 - 10:55
ADVERTS
Video
Latest news

    Japan faces surge in Covid-19 cases amidst new variant

    19 July 2024 - 23:03

    UN rep calls for global unity ahead of COP29

    19 July 2024 - 21:16

    Ukraine secures accelerated F-16 delivery from Poland

    19 July 2024 - 21:04

    Azerbaijan proposes $1 billion climate finance action fund at COP29

    19 July 2024 - 20:52

    Azerbaijan announces significant housing developments in Zangilan

    PHOTO

    19 July 2024 - 20:48

    Azerbaijan launches COP29 partnership programme for local businesses

    19 July 2024 - 20:40

    NASA cancels VIPER lunar rover mission

    19 July 2024 - 20:28

    Azerbaijan guarantees accessible voting in liberated areas for snap elections

    19 July 2024 - 20:16

    Azerbaijan’s COP29 CEO urges limited hydrocarbon use for climate goals

    19 July 2024 - 20:12

    Azerbaijan opens COP29 Academy to train youth in climate action

    19 July 2024 - 20:09

    POLITICO: Kamala Harris allies quietly prepare for potential Biden withdrawal

    19 July 2024 - 20:04

    COP29 Climate Change Champion highlights ongoing efforts to foster inclusivity

    19 July 2024 - 19:55

    Iran criticizes Israeli Knesset resolution as evidence of racism

    19 July 2024 - 19:52

    UN court declares Israeli settlements in West Bank, East Jerusalem illegal

    19 July 2024 - 19:40

    Man severely injured in mine explosion in Azerbaijan’s Kalbajar

    19 July 2024 - 19:28

    Turkish troops neutralise more terrorists in Syria, Iraq

    VIDEO

    19 July 2024 - 19:16

    Uzbekistan unveils advanced armored personnel carrier

    PHOTO / VIDEO

    19 July 2024 - 19:04

    Azerbaijan promises exemplary COP29 with broad focus on global issues

    19 July 2024 - 18:52

    Russia's breakthrough in UAV technology

    Drone flies with domestic AI chip

    19 July 2024 - 18:40

    Top 10 destinations for Azerbaijani oil

    19 July 2024 - 18:28

    Stoltenberg: Europe must brace for decade-long Ukraine conflict

    19 July 2024 - 18:15

    US unveils new satellite-jamming technology targeting Russian, Chinese ops

    19 July 2024 - 18:02

    Georgian Parliament Chair: No compromise on peace for European integration

    19 July 2024 - 17:50

    China struggles with military AI deployment amid US concerns

    Caliber.Az on YouTube

    19 July 2024 - 17:36

    Azerbaijan revives mining industry in liberated lands

    19 July 2024 - 17:26

    China hits back at NATO for "overstepping boundaries" in meddling Sino-Russian relations

    19 July 2024 - 17:14

    Indian oil giant acquires stakes in Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan projects

    19 July 2024 - 17:02

    British defence chief says UK won't aid Ukraine in attacking Russian targets

    19 July 2024 - 16:50

    Israel skips Gaza peace talks, frustrating officials who believe deal is near

    19 July 2024 - 16:38

    Israeli military confirms Iranian-made drone strike on Tel Aviv

    Investigation underway

    19 July 2024 - 16:36

    Envoy: Iran to double gas exports to Armenia

    19 July 2024 - 16:26

    How Azerbaijan asserts its global influence?

    President Aliyev in London

    19 July 2024 - 16:14

    Türkiye's strategic pivot towards the West

    Economic incentives and geopolitical maneuvers

    19 July 2024 - 16:02

    Trump urges Democrats to drop charges after recounting assassination attempt

    19 July 2024 - 15:50

    Türkiye set to host upcoming "3+3" foreign ministers meeting

    19 July 2024 - 15:38

    Trump's pick of JD Vance as running mate should alarm Europe

    Opinion by The Telegraph

    19 July 2024 - 15:27

    Envoy: UAE may join Gaza stabilisation mission

    19 July 2024 - 15:15

    China’s increasing footprint in Central Asia

    Stepping up military

    19 July 2024 - 15:06

    COP29: The crucial test for global climate action

    Bulgarian media examine upcoming summit's impact

    19 July 2024 - 15:03

    Turkish MP: Zangezur corridor vital for regional countries and China

    19 July 2024 - 14:51

All news