When will China have a sixth-gen fighter jet?

China is progressing towards developing a sixth-generation fighter jet, despite its characteristic secrecy in defence matters.

The clearest indication of this effort was conveyed by Wang Haifeng, chief designer at AVIC's Chengdu Aerospace Corp., who mentioned preparations for a combat aircraft aimed at safeguarding both sea and sky by 2035 in a January 2019 WeChat post, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

In 2022, the head of U.S. Air Combat Command affirmed that China's advancements in sixth-gen fighter technology appear to be progressing as planned. Rick Joe, an expert on the Chinese military, considers these efforts as part of an established program, citing increasing indicators in semi-official channels since 2019. This includes AVIC's conceptual artwork, academic papers, statements from industry and military officials, and satellite imagery showing fighter-like airframes at Chengdu Aerospace facilities.

According to Joe, testbed demonstrators, potentially subscale versions, have already conducted flights. He referred to the fighter in question as the J-XD due to the absence of an official name, noting that initial subsystems, like engines, may be less capable compared to U.S. equivalents initially, but China has made significant strides in narrowing these gaps over recent decades.

Brendan Mulvaney from the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute acknowledges China's improving capability in aerospace engineering, particularly in jet engine development, which has historically posed challenges. Mulvaney anticipates that China could achieve a meaningful sixth-gen fighter design by the late 2030s or early 2040s, although Joe remains optimistic that a prototype could potentially be ready by 2028 if flight testing begins five years prior to operational deployment in 2035.

In terms of unmanned capabilities, China envisions its future fighter possibly being optionally manned, contingent on advancements in AI and related technologies. While China's drone technology shows ambition, particularly in combat and collaborative aircraft showcased at air shows, Joe suggests that actual unmanned combat aerial vehicles intended for the People's Liberation Army are likely more sophisticated and in advanced stages of development or limited trial service.

Overall, despite differing estimates on the timeline, both experts agree that China is actively pursuing a sixth-generation fighter jet, leveraging advancements in AI, stealth, sensors, and manned-unmanned teaming to enhance its defense capabilities on the global stage.