Armenia caught as pawn in foreign game Yerevan's European ambitions

Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Alen Simonyan revealed the immediate plans of official Yerevan, dreaming about the European prospects of the “land of stones”.

“Armenia is preparing to become a candidate for membership of the European Union,” the Armenian politician said at a briefing, adding that the authorities have not discussed the possibility of Armenia joining NATO, but are “strengthening relations” with the European Union.

“There was no discussion about NATO; we didn’t discuss this within our team either. As for the European Union, this is not a military alliance; we are ready to strengthen relations. Today, democracy is our largest security system,” blurted out the speaker, who is convinced that Armenia should think about the possibility of becoming a candidate for membership in the European Union. “We are ready, definitely,” Simonyan said, answering a journalist’s question about whether Armenia is ready to deepen relations with the European Union and become a candidate for EU membership.

However, the desire of the Armenian side is quite understandable; to enter the large European family and become a part of it for Armenia is like manna from heaven. But dreams are dreams, but reality is different. It is enough to note that before the eyes of Armenia is the example of Georgia, which received the status of a candidate for EU membership only ten years after the signing of the association agreement with the European Union.

Let us recall that on June 27, 2014, now ex-Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Garibashvili said for the first time at a conference in Brussels that the country could become a full member of the EU within 5-10 years. However, these predictions have still not come true. And this despite the fact that Georgia, unlike Armenia, is much closer to European standards. Armenia, which since the days of Sargsyan’s rule has nurtured the dream of European integration, today still falls short of its neighbouring state in all these indicators. This is the first thing.

Secondly, Armenia naively hopes that it will join the European Union thanks to the patronage of France, which, in order to promote its ambitions in the Caucasus, apparently promised almost mountains of gold to the Armenian authorities. Therefore, it is not surprising that Simonyan had the courage to openly voice Yerevan’s intentions despite the Moscow factor. But here the following nuance should be noted. Since Armenia is officially a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and is still considered Russia’s closest ally in the South Caucasus, the Armenian authorities respond with evasive statements to issues of fundamental importance to Moscow.

This time too, Alen Simonyan, commenting on the issue related to the future fate of the Russian military in Armenia, said that “the Armenian authorities are not discussing the withdrawal of the Russian 102nd military base from the country, but believe that the current 'security system' does not work. What else needs to happen to realize that this security system is not working?”

By the way, the story about “security dysfunction” is voiced very often in Yerevan; today it is one of the worn-out arguments that local authorities use as a shield. According to Simonyan, it turns out that the Russian base in Armenia remains inviolable since this issue is not yet on the internal agenda. By the way, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan spoke in the same spirit in October last year in an interview with The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

“In Armenia, they are not currently discussing the withdrawal of the Russian base, although the Armenian authorities did not see any advantages in its placement,” Pashinyan said, adding that he was disappointed with the actions of the CSTO and that, they say, Armenia should draw conclusions.

And it seems that conclusions were drawn in Yerevan, but in favour of the West. So now everything depends on the further steps of the Russian side. And it’s unlikely that Moscow has forgotten that demands for the Russian military base to leave Gyumri began literally immediately after Pashinyan came to power back in December 2018.

Returning to Simonyan’s statements, in particular, to the issue of the country’s exit from the CSTO, it is worth noting the speaker’s florid speech. “There was no talk of changing any vector or anything like that. We are discussing what to do to reduce the dangers that may threaten Armenia. There is no decision on leaving the CSTO, but perhaps we do not rule it out. Our society also talks about this, we can say that it makes such a demand,” Simonyan said. This suggests the conclusion that, contradicting themselves, the Armenian authorities want to maintain intrigue in Russian-Armenian relations.

On the one hand, Simonyan assures that Armenia is not changing its foreign policy vector, but does not immediately exclude the possibility of the country leaving the CSTO. It is curious how the Armenian authorities are going to maintain the foreign policy vector if Armenia’s exit from the CSTO already means a change in the guidelines of state policy. Moreover, the authorities openly declare European plans for the “country of stones.”

The famous Polish expert and public figure Jakub Koreiba shared his opinion with Caliber.Az about the likelihood of Armenia joining the European Union. According to the Polish political scientist, for Armenia to join the European Union, a complete restructuring of both foreign and domestic policies will be required.

“I mean Armenia’s withdrawal from the CSTO, the withdrawal of Russian border guards and the liquidation of the Russian military base in Gyumri, and in general, minimizing and reducing Moscow’s influence to zero. Moreover, this is only a prelude and initial conditions for negotiations on Armenia’s accession to the EU. That is, a complete reorientation of Yerevan’s foreign policy may be only the first step on this path. A much more difficult condition for Armenia's entry into the EU is a complete reshaping of its domestic policy. This requires the elimination of corruption, the introduction of standards for the protection of human rights and the transition to a market economy. That is, everything that is not in Armenia. Perhaps this is the most striking example that contradicts European standards. There is no country less different from the EU in the post-Soviet space, and real life in Armenia absolutely contradicts European standards, norms and values. Therefore, in my opinion, Armenia’s entry into the EU in the next decades is completely excluded,” Jacob Koreiba is sure.

As for Yerevan’s openly vassal policy towards France, the political scientist believes that Paris needs Armenia as a tool to promote its regional interests.

“France is a decadent power, it is weakening and losing its attractiveness, it does not have many allies, and recently we have seen how Mali, Niger and other African countries have officially refused to be considered as such. So France has little choice among the countries that are trying to become allies. Paris is forced to 'take what it has.' And there is Yerevan, which is ready to trumpet everywhere that France is a great power with incredible influence. French-Armenian relations are a mutual deception. Because Paris pretends that Yerevan is an important regional partner, and Armenia creates the illusion that France is an influential power. In fact, all this, except for pretentious talk, leads to nothing, which, in general, is in favour of the region and the world. Neither Armenia nor France, despite having different statuses, are constructive players. The influence of France leads, as a rule, to poverty, chaos and lack of prospects, and it treats Armenia purely consumeristly, instrumentally, as a certain territory through which it is possible to create a source of conflict in order to contain those countries that France considers its opponents. Now Yerevan blames its former 'big brother' Moscow for everything, but time will pass, they will already declare that Paris is to blame for all the troubles of Armenia,” said  Koreiba.