"Armenia is advised to promptly negotiate with Azerbaijan instead of flirting with France" Neyzhmakov's and Markov's opinions on Caliber.Az

The issue of signing a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia was raised immediately after the end of the Second Karabakh war in 2020. Certain progress on the settlement issue emerged after the West took a keen interest in the processes in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a document at the Prague summit of EU leaders this autumn stating that the delimitation of the border between the countries and a peace treaty must be based on the UN Charter and the Alma-Ata Declaration. Recalling Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's statement at December 1 press conference on European security issues, we can conclude that Moscow is not against Europe's proposal either.

"The signing of a document by Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan in Prague on October 6, fixing that the peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan should be based on the borders of the two states in accordance with the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration, resolves the issue of Karabakh status. The Alma-Ata Declaration on the creation of the CIS clearly says that the borders of new states will be based on the administrative boundaries between the republics of the former Soviet Union, where Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast is clearly part of the Azerbaijan SSR," Lavrov said.

The document, unwelcome in Armenia, provides for the assertion of Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory. This time Lavrov said that since all sides signed it, Moscow "recognizes the Alma-Ata Declaration without any reservations."

It is noteworthy that Moscow's displeasure with Yerevan was clearly heard in the speech of the Russian foreign minister. This is proved by his answer to the Armenian side to the request of Armenian diplomats to confirm previous Russian proposals: "...not exactly from the line of negotiating".

Mikhail Neyzhmakov, a Russian political analyst and director of analytical projects at the Agency for Political and Economic Communications, shares the same opinion.

Neyzhmakov told Caliber.Az that Lavrov's statement confirms the existing contradictions between Russia and Armenia.

"Sergei Lavrov made a rather sharp remark concerning official Yerevan during the press conference on European security, saying that this is not an issue of negotiations but something else, which once again confirms the contradictions between Moscow and the government of Armenia. It's worth noting that Nikol Pashinyan and the Armenian Foreign Ministry have not yet commented on the Russian diplomat's remark at the official level. Even Eduard Aghajanyan, who represents the ruling Civil Contract party, had a rather reserved reaction to Lavrov's remark, simply saying that Lavrov 'said nothing new'. Yet parliamentary politicians, even those from the pro-government camp, are usually less restrictive in their statements than officials from the executive branch. Therefore, we can assume that the controversy between the team of Nikol Pashinyan and Moscow has not yet reached its peak. Perhaps, there are closed consultations, against which Armenian officials remain cautious in their public statements," the Russian political analyst suggested.

According to Neyzhmakov, the reason why the Armenian opposition is outraged by Lavrov's endorsement of the Alma-Ata Declaration is clear.

"If the Country for Life party had not criticized Sergey Lavrov's interpretation of the Alma-Ata Declaration, it would have complicated its work with the protest audience in Armenia. Not to mention the fact that party leader Mesrop Arakelyan has officially become an advisor to Ruben Vardanyan, whose priorities are now publicly known. This in itself does not mean that this party or Ruben Vardanyan's team is going for real aggravation of relations with Moscow - rhetoric and actual cooperation in politics often differ. In addition, the Country of Life's statement is moderate enough with regard to Russia," said our interviewee.

Sergei Markov, a Russian public figure, political analyst, and general director of the Institute for Political Research, said in his commentary for Caliber.Az that Sergei Lavrov's words show that Russia is toughening its stance on Armenia.

"This happened after Nikol Pashinyan's rude demarche at the CSTO summit held in Yerevan. Russia's firm commitment to the Alma-Ata Declaration and the recommendation to Yerevan to strictly adhere to this document clearly indicates that Russia recognizes that Karabakh is Azerbaijan. And instead of flirting with France, instead of dragging Paris into the South Caucasus to destabilize the situation, instead of futile hopes for the presence of French troops in Karabakh, the Armenian leadership is advised to sit down at the negotiating table with Azerbaijan as soon as possible. And to negotiate seriously and substantially, to agree on the formats, timing, stages of the full integration of Karabakh into Azerbaijan," Markov said.