Armenia's shift towards Europe may trigger crisis in South Caucasus Ties with Russia may be strained

The process of training Armenia by the West continues.

One of the latest ideas of the EU is the visa-free regime for the Armenian citizens. The EU promises to consider this issue. However, it is quite obvious that Brussels does not give out such “generous preferences” free of charge. Georgia can be cited as an example. The EU clearly showed that friendship and trade with the West are too expensive.

What will Armenia have to give up for handouts from the West? What EU instructions will Armenia have to follow? The Russian political analysts answered these questions for Caliber.Az.

Expert in international affairs, candidate of political sciences Renat Savin has said that the EU’s approaches to the redistribution of spheres of influence in the post-Soviet area have not changed over several decades.

“Since the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), the EU has been developing a policy of strengthening its influence in this space by using the same technologies. As a policy of persuasion, the EU promises close cooperation, open borders and the chance to become a full member of the EU. At first it seems that the EU fulfills its promise. However, then such a period comes when the dynamics of these processes noticeably decline, and the EU puts forward a whole package of conditions, arguing that without them the European integration process will not take place,” the expert said.

Savin noted that as there are already agreements with the West, and the country has already made some progress towards their implementation, the “victim” has no choice but to accept the terms of the game.

“This approach can be summed up by one comparison: getting hooked. Georgia can be cited as an example. The pressure of the West forced the Georgian government, which was so loyal to it, to be indignant. The ruling Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia party decided to object to its Western partners,” he said.

The expert said that it was clear that the West, in essence, was trying to take control of Georgian society, to make it tame, ready for all commands coming from outside.

“Thank God, the Georgian Dream realized that there was a danger of paying too high a price for the cherished European integration - a sharp increase in confrontation with Russia. It is quite obvious that no one in Tbilisi was going to follow Kyiv’s example,” Savin said.

The expert added that as for Armenia, the same scenario is observed. What is Pashinyan ready to do for Armenia’s joining the European family? It is still unclear.

“However, there is a danger of passing the point of no return - when Yerevan has done a lot to sever ties with Russia, and it will be too late and pointless to resume relations with Russia,” Savin said.

The expert stressed that for example, anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia will greatly increase or Yerevan will launch a new armed campaign supported by the West. As a result, Armenia will find itself between two fires.

“Then Armenia may fully lose its statehood. It’s strange that Pashinyan, who is so actively pursuing cooperation with the West, does not think about such development,” Savin added.

Another Russian political analyst Dmitry Gradov has said that Armenia’s “European path” looks like the beginning of a great tragedy for the Armenian people.

“The West is rapidly changing Armenia’s political course, which is disturbing. It is obvious that Washington and Brussels are eager to implement these tasks, which means that the situation in the South Caucasus may aggravate very soon. Europe promised a lot to Ukraine,” he said.

The political analyst said that it is quite obvious that the “visa-free travel” is a turning point for the future of Armenia. This is also a definite sign for Russia that Armenia is finally coming under Western protectorate. It is quite obvious that such a Western benefit for the Armenian citizens may turn out to be too sweet, making them believe that they can live without Russia.

“However, Moscow may respond to such developments negatively. I think that the Kremlin will remind Armenia soon that its preferential relations with the Eurasian Economic Union [EAEU] may be revised and this news will shake Yerevan,” Gradov added.