Armenia's shift towards West sparks geopolitical concerns, potential security risks Armenia may become a target for Iranian or Russian missiles

The publication by Caliber.Az of a document revealing secret agreements on military-technical cooperation between the EU, the US, and Armenia, negotiated during the April 5 Brussels meeting, has caused a significant stir. It has become evident that the West harbors substantial intentions for Yerevan, prompting Armenia to offer concessions in terms of sovereignty, territory, and its security apparatus to these newfound allies.

However, how much does this scenario actually win for Yerevan? Why is Armenia ready to become an obedient tool of the West in the South Caucasus? Caliber.Az correspondent asked foreign experts to respond these questions.

Thus, in the opinion of Israeli political scientist and publicist, head of the International Relations Commission of the Union of Journalists of Israel Rostislav Goltsman, in order to assess the whole situation, it is necessary to highlight the background of such agreements between Yerevan and the West.

"So, point one - the essence of the West's underhanded agreements on military-political cooperation with Armenia is certainly related to the presidential elections in the United States.

Point two - throughout the history of world diplomacy, in cases where a territorial conflict arises the resolution of territorial conflicts has consistently necessitated the return of territories to their rightful owners, often accompanied by the resettlement of disloyal populations to their historical homelands.

And if this is not done, the problem will remain a bleeding wound and a reason for prolonging the conflict. We know this from the example of the Sudeten German uprising, the Balkan war in the former Yugoslavia, and, as we see, the confirmation of this dogma has found itself as a method of ending the conflict in Karabakh.

And in point three, I would like to mention one more constant - Armenia will never and under no circumstances be a member of NATO. I cannot imagine, regardless of who will be the president of Türkiye - Erdogan or someone else - that he will give his consent to this," the political scientist emphasized.

The fourth point is that the EU and NATO have been demonstrating their weakness in recent years, and this trend is only growing.

"And point five, which unites all the previous points - the power centers in the West need to present some result of their policy in the South Caucasus. On the one hand, the US, NATO and the EU guarantee Armenia serious financial injections to reorganize its army and economy. But on the other hand, President Biden simply has nothing to brag about to his electorate. He has failed to stop the war in Ukraine, and by lifting Trump's sanctions against Iran, the Biden administration has only exacerbated Tehran's threat, the most glaring example being the recent massive attack on Israel. NATO and the EU boast similarly weak results, having failed to stop Russia's war with Ukraine, the war in the Middle East, or Iran's nuclear program. And here comes such a convenient occasion - Armenia intends to leave the orbit of Russia's influence, while Russian military forces are leaving Azerbaijan on their own. Therefore, it is quite convenient, taking advantage of the moment, to place here its bridgehead in close proximity to Iran, to create its outpost in the South Caucasus, thus reporting to its electorate that this is how the US and the EU are stopping Russian expansion in this region. That is, they do not want to fight in any case, as Ukraine proved, but to show some successes - why not?

The only exception is perhaps France, which is directly interested in fomenting revanchist sentiments among Armenians as a pretext for its confrontation with Azerbaijan. Therefore, I repeat once again, in my subjective opinion, this is not a scenario of escalation in the South Caucasus, but merely an attempt by the US, EU and NATO to attribute some merits to themselves, which in reality they do not have in the South Caucasus. In my opinion, there is no global cooperation with prospects, except for one thing: by forcing Armenia to reformat its army to NATO standards, the West is forcing Armenians to buy Western weapons. And where do you think the money allocated by the West to Armenia will go? To the same Western arms manufacturers, mainly the United States. So, I think that all the plans of the US, EU and NATO are to have an outpost in the South Caucasus not far from Iran, but NATO membership will not be granted to Armenia," Goltsman noted.

According to Shota Apkhaidze, political scientist, director of the Center for Islamic Studies of the Caucasus, expert of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, the geopolitical situation forces the West to seek new formats of cooperation with the countries of the South Caucasus, and this region is a zone of great interest for the United States. It is obvious that Pashinyan has come to put Armenia on the rails of the West, and the agreements in Brussels are the result of this policy.

“But here there is a certain international legal conflict: Armenia is in the CSTO and EAEU and is a party to various strategic arrangements. For example, it is a unified air defence zone, where Armenia has to exchange classified information with other countries of the bloc, and this is just one example. And now, if Armenia finally and entirely becomes a cooperator with the Western military machine, it will have to carry out a number of political procedures - for example, the Armenian parliament must define and vote for a new security system, abolishing the old one, i.e. denounce all strategic agreements with the CSTO, withdraw all Russian military, in particular the Russian military base. And this is not easy," the political scientist noted.

In his opinion, the West does not pursue the goal of dragging Armenia into NATO, but has other objectives, such as controlling the Iranian-Armenian border. This is a precautionary measure not only against Iran, but also against Türkiye if it decides to leave NATO, and there is a certain threat of such a decision.

"Western advisers will likely be deployed to Armenia not to train its military in NATO standards as desired by Yerevan, but to establish a reconnaissance base for territorial monitoring. However, it's important to note that Armenia's chances of joining NATO are slim, considering Georgia's extensive preparation for membership was ultimately utilized by the alliance to counter Russia rather than facilitate Georgia's accession.

And in the case of Armenia, the same thing will certainly happen. Yes, it is possible that Armenia will receive some new technological weapons, financing of the army, will modernize its army through the help of NATO, but all this is done for one purpose only - to use the territory of Armenia as a bridgehead. And perhaps all this will happen very soon. But here we should take into account the main thing: no matter how the US, EU and NATO arm Armenia, it is not able to win any victory over Russia, Iran, Türkiye or Azerbaijan. And in case of a big confrontation between regional players and the West, the entire territory of Armenia may become a target for Iranian or Russian missiles," Apkhaidze concluded.