Biden administration, Trump team collaborate on Lebanon ceasefire, eye Gaza conflict

As the Biden administration works toward a potential peace deal in the Middle East before its term ends, a surprising ally is quietly playing a role: Donald Trump. 

According to WSJ's recent article, rather than criticizing the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah brokered by the White House, Trump and his advisers have largely refrained from commenting, while Biden officials now turn their attention to a much more challenging task — a ceasefire in Gaza.

This rare alignment between the two political figures could offer mutual benefits. For Biden, a successful peace deal would cement a significant foreign-policy achievement before he leaves office. For Trump, it could reduce a major global crisis he would otherwise have to manage as he transitions into a second presidential bid.

However, this temporary cooperation may not last long. US officials acknowledge that Hamas militants have not signalled readiness for a ceasefire in Gaza before Biden’s departure on January 20. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has traditionally favoured Trump, might prefer to wait for the new administration to grant him more freedom to continue the war against Hamas.

“I’m sceptical that there will be a ceasefire deal in Gaza, regardless of coordination with the Trump transition team,” said Michael Hanna, a Middle East expert at the International Crisis Group. “Netanyahu is reluctant to commit to a permanent halt in fighting,” he added, noting that Netanyahu’s coalition partners and Hamas have no interest in a ceasefire at the moment.

Even if an agreement does materialize, Trump could still claim credit for facilitating it. Mike Waltz, Trump’s choice for national security adviser, praised the Lebanon ceasefire as a result of Trump’s influence: “Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump,” he wrote on social media.

During the recent discussions, Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer briefed Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida about the talks, and Trump expressed hope the deal would be finalized before he takes office again in January. Trump and Netanyahu have communicated several times since the Republican’s recent election victory.

Biden’s team has kept Trump’s transition team in the loop throughout these negotiations. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan confirmed that he had kept Waltz informed about the progress of the Israel-Hezbollah agreement, while Biden envoy Amos Hochstein communicated with Trump’s aides to ensure a smooth transition.

A senior Biden official noted that Trump’s team agreed that completing the Lebanon ceasefire was in the best interest of all parties involved. “Most importantly, doing it now versus later will save countless lives on both sides,” the official emphasized.

Trump has expressed mixed views about the timing of ending the Gaza conflict. While he initially supported Israel’s military actions, he now seems to recognize the benefits of winding down the Gaza crisis before he resumes office. However, achieving a ceasefire is proving difficult. Diplomatic efforts are intensifying, with Egyptian and Arab mediators actively engaged in talks. Egypt is working with Trump’s team to determine whether the US can convince Israel to compromise on key issues, such as its desire for a “buffer zone” between Gaza and Israel.

At the same time, Hamas is being told by Egypt that its demands, such as a full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, will likely be rejected by Netanyahu. Brett McGurk, Biden’s Middle East envoy, met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss both the Lebanon ceasefire and potential progress toward a Gaza ceasefire and the release of hostages.

Biden and Trump are also aligned on integrating Israel further into the Middle East. Both leaders are seeking to broker a deal that would normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia in exchange for US security guarantees for Riyadh. While Biden remains hopeful of finalizing the deal before his presidency ends, Trump may hope to claim this achievement for himself in the future.

By Tamilla Hasanova