Countdown begins as US and Israel gear up to tighten the noose on Iran Will Tehran bow to Trump’s nuclear demands?

On March 18, the Iranian publication Tabnak News, which is linked to the influential former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohsen Rezaee, published an interview with American researcher and University of South Alabama professor Nader Entessar.

“I believe Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has successfully persuaded Trump that there is now a strategic window of opportunity to escalate the conflict in Yemen as a prelude to exerting coercive pressure on Iran. This escalation would serve as a tactical prerequisite for compelling Tehran to acquiesce to Washington’s broader strategic demands,” he stated.

Entessar’s assessment seems accurate. A recent Reuters report, citing unnamed senior US officials, highlighted the significant influence Israel holds over Donald Trump’s administration.

Trump has escalated military action against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, a key ally of Tehran that controls nearly a third of Yemen, including its capital, Sanaa. However, most experts agree that airstrikes alone are unlikely to defeat the Houthis, who operate as guerrilla fighters dispersed across mountainous terrain. A ground invasion also appears impractical, as it would lead to massive casualties for the invading force. Saudi Arabia has been engaged in combat against the Houthis since 2015, with little to show beyond heavy losses.

By targeting Iran’s allies through sustained bombings, Washington is effectively using military pressure to tighten the screws on Tehran. Trump stated, "Iranian leadership would be held responsible for every shot fired by Yemen’s Houthis and face dire consequences if Houthis continue to attack international shipping lanes".

Influential and well-informed media outlet Axios has reported that US President Donald Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, setting a two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear agreement. The information was disclosed to Axios by a senior American official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, along with two other sources familiar with the letter’s contents. Should Iran reject Trump’s proposal and refuse to engage in negotiations, the likelihood of the US or Israel launching military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities would increase significantly.

Over the past four years, Iran’s nuclear program has advanced considerably, bringing the country closer than ever to the potential development of nuclear weapons. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has accumulated enough uranium enriched to 60% to build six nuclear bombs. However, producing a functioning nuclear weapon requires enrichment to 90%. Additionally, Iran must develop and integrate effective delivery systems. Experts estimate that completing this process could take approximately six months.

US and Israeli intelligence agencies remain uncertain about their ability to precisely detect when Iran might cross the nuclear threshold. This uncertainty further raises the likelihood of preemptive strikes.

Trump also emphasized: "The US has reached a critical point in its relations with Iran. We cannot let them have nuclear weapons. Something will happen very soon. I would prefer a peaceful deal over the other option, but the other option will solve the problem."

Conflicting signals are coming from Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who holds near-absolute power, has openly rejected the possibility of negotiations, calling them a "deception." However, some Iranian diplomats have suggested that a return to talks could be possible. Given Iran's centralized decision-making system, it is unlikely that such statements would have been made without the Supreme Leader’s consent or at least his tacit approval. Overall, Tehran's stance remains internally contradictory and unclear.