Egypt-Israel peace treaty faces new threats as Gaza war escalates

According to a new article, Foreign Policy features that as the war between Israel and Hamas continues to escalate, long-standing tensions between Cairo and Jerusalem are threatening to unravel decades of diplomacy. 

In an era where once-unimaginable events are becoming a reality, a pivotal question is emerging: Is the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty at risk? The ongoing 16-month war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip has added new strains to a relationship that has already faced public challenges.

Historically, during conflicts, both Egypt and Israel made concerted efforts to preserve the integrity of their peace treaty. However, that tradition seems to be under threat.

On January 6, Marc Zell, an American lawyer residing in Israel, posted on X that Egypt had reportedly mobilized a significant number of troops in the Sinai Peninsula, including "anti-tank obstacles" and "armored divisions." While the accuracy of this claim is uncertain, Zell's comments are noteworthy due to his connections within both Israel and the United States. He is the chairman of Republican Overseas Israel and serves as general counsel for Republicans Overseas, likely giving him access to sensitive information from Israeli officials.

When approached for comment, an Egyptian contact argued that all Egyptian military actions in the Sinai are approved by Israel and that the activity in question was routine. However, the growing tensions between Cairo and Jerusalem over the past few weeks cannot be ignored. Social media, notably, has intensified the situation with fake photos and manipulated footage, including a deepfake video of an Israeli officer purportedly thanking Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi for cooperating with Israel. The Israel Defense Forces quickly responded, refuting the video and warning that outside forces were trying to undermine relations.

Traditional media has also played its part in amplifying tensions. Some Egyptian talk show hosts have stoked nationalist fervor, drawing comparisons to the media environment before the 1967 war. Meanwhile, Israeli bloggers have criticized Sisi’s leadership, urging Israel not to repeat its mistakes from Lebanon in dealing with Hezbollah.

Amidst the growing discord, Israeli officials have accused Egypt of violating the peace treaty. Israel's ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, referred to Egypt’s actions as a "very serious violation," while Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, warned that Egypt's military moves following the October 7 events should "raise alarm bells."

Despite the high-stakes rhetoric, the broader context must be considered. The Gaza conflict is not only about Egypt’s frustration over Israel’s actions but also about Egypt’s long-standing grievances with its peace agreement with Israel. While the treaty has brought benefits to Egypt, many Egyptians feel it has weakened their regional influence, allowing Israel to pursue its interests without substantial interference.

The ongoing Gaza war has reinforced these feelings of vulnerability. The Egyptian government has been unable to stop the violence, offer significant humanitarian assistance to Palestinians, or prevent Israeli control over strategic areas like the Philadelphi Corridor and Rafah crossing. Although Egypt played a role in negotiating the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, it was overshadowed by Qatar’s influence, further highlighting Egypt's limited influence in the region.

The Gaza crisis has further eroded President Sisi's standing. His earlier popularity, achieved through the ousting of former President Mohamed Morsi, has diminished. The recent Sinai deployments appear to be a signal to the Egyptian people that their country is not as weak as it may appear. By ramping up tensions with Israel, Sisi is projecting strength. However, the risks of this approach are clear—especially if tensions escalate into war.

By Naila Huseynova