How Japan’s rice crisis is transforming political landscape

Rice cultivation in Japan has a history stretching back millennia, but the country’s iconic grain is under pressure as soaring prices, missteps in government policy, and rising competition from “inferior” imports shake confidence in its future. In just months, the crisis has forced the resignation of a cabinet minister, reshaped distribution policy, and raised fears that a staple feeding millions of households faces an existential threat.

Agriculture Minister Taku Etō resigned in May after saying he never buys rice because he receives it for free from political supporters, a remark that infuriated the public amid climbing food costs. According to an article by Time magazine, his departure intensified criticism of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is under fire for failing to contain prices and for a broader cost-of-living crisis that has weakened his support.

Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s son, Shinjiro was swiftly tapped to replace Etō, tasked with easing a domestic rice shortage that has pushed prices to record highs.

The challenge is as political as it is agricultural. Koizumi must balance cutting costs for urban consumers—many of whom are drifting from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)—while still protecting rice farmers, a group central to the party’s traditional support base.

Within weeks of his appointment, government stockpiles appeared on grocery shelves, bringing the price of a 5-kilogram bag down from roughly ¥4,300 to ¥3,500 (approx. $29.30 and $23.9)

It was a sharp departure from Etō’s slower release of reserves, which angered shoppers. Since partial liberalization in 1995, Japan’s rice market has been driven by supply and demand, though the state still intervenes by restricting output to keep prices from collapsing, paying subsidies for alternative crops, and imposing heavy tariffs on imports.

Complex drivers of rice crisis

But limits on production, changing diets, and weather-related crop losses have steadily reduced output, creating shortages and driving prices higher.

For years, consumers accepted higher prices as a way to support domestic farmers, says Hiroshi Mukunoki, an economics professor at Tokyo’s Gakushuin University. But he warns the latest surge “may have tested that tolerance, making the issue more politically salient.”

“Koizumi successfully made the rice price a non-issue,” says Tatsuo Hatta, president of the Asia Growth Research Institute.

Protecting rice has long been justified by food security concerns, Hatta says, but the fact that households now struggle to afford a staple undermines that rationale. He argues security could instead be assured by stockpiling imported rice and encouraging local farmers to increase output.

Hanno Jentzsch, an associate professor at the University of Vienna, sees Koizumi’s role as a signal that the LDP is pivoting to consumer interests. “Making him agricultural minister could be seen as a strategic political move to signal to consumers that now somebody is at the top who has their interests in mind,” he says. “The LDP is not just the party of rural Japan anymore, it is a party that needs urban voters.”

Voters’ frustrations go beyond rice, notes Jeff Kingston, professor at Temple University Japan. “Inflation is a huge issue here. Rice prices have doubled since last year. Gasoline prices are sky high. So households are feeling the pinch,” he says. “I think there’s a lot of grumbling: What about my pension? What about medical care? What about corruption in the party? Weren’t you going to root it out, and then you just sort of did nothing?”

Still, the article highlights that Koizumi’s approach risks alienating the rural heartland, especially small-scale farmers reliant on government protections.

“Koizumi has a certain image, and that image is that he is not a friend of the agricultural lobby. Much to the contrary, he is, you could say, an adversary,” warns Jentzsch.

By Nazrin Sadigova