Bloomberg forecast identifies hotspots for civil unrest in 2026

Bloomberg has identified a group of countries that are expected to face a heightened risk of civil unrest in 2026, according to its latest assessment.

Based on Bloomberg data, Ethiopia, the Central African Republic, Angola, Guatemala, the Republic of the Congo, and Malaysia are among the states where the likelihood of protests and instability is rising most sharply. These countries registered the fastest growth in protest risk among 157 nations surveyed, surpassed only by Nepal and Madagascar.

The forecast is derived from a machine-learning model that evaluates more than 50 indicators, including the strength of state institutions, demographic trends, macroeconomic conditions, and historical patterns of protest activity. The intensity of unrest is measured using data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and presented on an index ranging from 0 to 100.

Bloomberg notes that Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is facing increasing pressure due to the strengthening of Islamist movements, internal fractures within the ruling coalition, and widespread economic dissatisfaction. While developed economies are generally assessed as more resilient, the analysis also points to a rising risk of mass protests in the US, Indonesia, and Israel.

Nobel Prize–winning economist Daron Acemoglu said that democracy is undergoing a global crisis, driven largely by younger generations. In 2025, protests led by Generation Z contributed to changes of power in Peru and Madagascar, while similar movements also emerged in Morocco and Serbia.

One of the most significant episodes of unrest occurred in Nepal in September, when protests resulted in more than 70 deaths. Despite the resignation of Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, tensions in the country have not subsided. Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki was appointed interim prime minister, becoming the first woman to hold the position, and new elections have been scheduled for March 5.

By Tamilla Hasanova