Europe and China: Rapprochement amid Geopolitical changes A response to US withdrawal

Under the leadership of Donald Trump, the United States showed that it was no longer willing to defend Europe militarily. Furthermore, it imposed tariffs on the European Union. In this new context, Beijing began making intensive efforts to strengthen ties with the EU. China’s efforts started a month ago, and this political direction could become central or one of the most important for the People's Republic.

European Union

The EU’s GDP accounts for 17.63 per cent of the global economy (roughly the same as China’s) – making it one of the largest markets on the planet (for comparison, Russia’s share is around 2 percent). In addition, Europe possesses cutting-edge technologies that China desperately needs. This is even without considering the UK, which is currently very close to European governments.

Germany and some other European countries had been reducing their economic partnership with China under pressure from Joe Biden’s administration in recent years. The decision was tied to the so-called friendly-shoring or de-risking policy. This policy meant that the US was reducing trade relations with Beijing and pushing its partners in Europe to do the same. This policy had results. Trade volume between the EU and China decreased by 7 per cent in 2023, now exceeding $785 billion, which is half of the EU’s trade turnover with the US (however, it slightly grew in 2024).

But this could have happened when the Americans were acting as Europe's defender. However, Donald Trump made it clear that he was no longer willing to defend European countries and, furthermore, intended to impose tariffs on them.

If the US is no longer a friend and protector of Europe, then Beijing is no longer an enemy. For China, this is a stroke of luck. It means that the US has undercut its own position, largely losing its ability to influence European policy on the China issue. Now, China will try to win European markets, and Europe may begin lifting restrictions on exports to China, benefiting from trade with the most powerful market in Asia. For both sides, this could have significant economic implications.

For example, what will happen to China's ability to produce cutting-edge semiconductors? This depends on what happens with the "Semiconductor OPEC." The alliance formed by the US, which includes the US, the Netherlands, and Japan, was intended to block Beijing’s access to the most advanced semiconductor technology. What will happen now? If the US is unwilling to protect the Netherlands and imposes tariffs that could affect its economy, why should the Netherlands limit trade with the US’s adversary, China?

Of course, these processes will not be instantaneous, as there is inertia from the old policy, which may persist for quite some time. Much will depend on Europe's willingness to change its strategy. If European politicians remain indecisive, continue to hope for America, and shy away from Beijing, no changes will occur.

The United States

As for the policy towards the United States, Beijing intends to proceed with great caution. Chinese authorities do not want confrontation with Trump, hoping for a deal with him. Moreover, the trade turnover between China and the US, although it has decreased in recent years, grew last year, reaching $688 billion.

The US views China as a dangerous emerging superpower and a global competitor. Washington is dissatisfied with the massive positive trade balance China maintains with America. Additionally, China has sharp territorial disputes with nearly every country in the Indo-Pacific region, from Japan to India. This has historically prompted countries in the region to rely on the US for support and protection.

Nevertheless, the trade war declared by the US against China is a major concern for the Chinese, pushing them to seek closer ties with the Europeans.

Russia

For China, the conflict in Ukraine has been, as noted by Russian expert Alexander Gabuev, extremely beneficial. Firstly, it allowed the collective West's attention to be diverted from the confrontation with China. Secondly, Moscow, facing sanctions, was forced to reorient its trade towards China. This meant supplying cheap energy resources, providing China access to technologies of interest, and much more.

The trade turnover between the two countries is growing. The volume of trade between China and Russia in 2024 increased to $244.8 billion. However, in percentage terms, the trade turnover between China and Russia in 2024 grew by only 1.9% (compared to 26.3% in 2023 and 29.3% in 2022).

In general, in such a situation, China, as Gabuev put it, could sit on the "Chinese wall," swinging its legs and observing the unfolding events.

At the same time, despite their cooperation, there is a cautious attitude toward Moscow in Beijing. They view Russia's partnership with China as a temporary phenomenon, believing that, due to economic, political, and socio-cultural factors, Russia will eventually turn away from China and once again pivot toward the West.

The leadership of the People's Republic of China is reluctant to intervene in the conflict in Ukraine, as they do not wish to provoke the United States further. Nevertheless, Beijing maintains close economic cooperation with Russia.

However, what will happen now, in light of the potential rapprochement between China and Europe? What direction will Beijing take? It all depends on the future policies of European countries and the actions taken by Donald Trump.